Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/08, 17:00

Prediction: SIF vs FC Ylivieska

Team pages: SIF · FC Ylivieska

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

SIF2.07

FC Ylivieska1.89

1X2

43% 22% 36%

SIF Draw FC Ylivieska

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

SIF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWWLLW

FC Ylivieska 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWWDWW

Head-to-head

SIF 4–1 FC Ylivieska (5 last)

FC Ylivieska2-1SIF
SIF5-2FC Ylivieska
FC Ylivieska2-3SIF
SIF2-0FC Ylivieska
SIF9-1FC Ylivieska

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SIF 1496 · FC Ylivieska 1553

	SIF	Draw	FC Ylivieska
Our model	42%	22%	35%
Market	43%	21%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ylivieska (rating 1496 vs 1553).
H2H favours SIF: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SIF	FC Ylivieska
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	2.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	88/0/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	1.5 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +24’	2.10	4.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SIF 4–0–1 FC Ylivieska

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	2-1 HT 2-0	SIF
31/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	SIF	5-2 HT 3-1	FC Ylivieska
08/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	2-3 HT 1-3	SIF
21/07/24 Finland Kolmonen	SIF	2-0	FC Ylivieska
25/08/22 Finland Kolmonen	SIF	9-1 HT 4-0	FC Ylivieska

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	15	11	2	2	41	13	35
2	FC Kiisto	16	9	3	4	40	22	30
3	FC Ylivieska	15	8	2	5	36	33	26
4	Virkia	15	7	2	6	28	24	23
5	VPV Pallo-Veikot	15	7	2	6	21	21	23
6	SIF	15	6	3	6	27	29	21
7	SJK-j	15	5	4	6	23	24	19
8	Sporting Kristina	14	5	3	6	19	20	18
9	LBK	16	6	0	10	25	40	18
10	Nykarleby IK	15	3	4	8	21	38	13
11	KPV Akatemia	15	3	1	11	30	47	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SIF	FC Ylivieska
Nykarleby IK	4-3 W	2-1 W
VIFK	1-3 L	1-1 D
FC Kiisto	1-5 L	1-0 W
LBK	2-0 W	4-1 W
Sporting Kristina	2-1 W	2-0 W
KPV Akatemia	3-2 W	3-5 L
VPV Pallo-Veikot	1-1 D	4-0 W
SJK-j	2-2 D	2-2 D
Virkia	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ylivieska (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SIF

LLDDWWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-3	9	2	W
07/08	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	0	8	L
30/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	5	5	L
16/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
10/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
01/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	5	1	W
25/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
17/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
11/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
04/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	4	4	L

FC Ylivieska

DWLWLWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
13/08	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
30/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	1	11	D
23/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
16/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	1-5	–	–	L
02/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	0	5	W
23/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	7	L
17/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
11/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SIF vs FC Ylivieska?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SIF win (43%). Probabilities: SIF 43%, draw 22%, FC Ylivieska 36%.

How many goals are expected in SIF vs FC Ylivieska?

The model expects 3.96 goals (SIF 2.07 · FC Ylivieska 1.89), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in SIF vs FC Ylivieska?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.