Football · USA USL League One · 26/09, 23:00

Prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise

Team pages: Portland Hearts of Pine · Sarasota Paradise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Portland Hearts of Pine1.48

Sarasota Paradise1.36

1X2

39% 26% 34%

Portland Hearts of Pine Draw Sarasota Paradise

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Hearts of Pine 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLLWWD

Sarasota Paradise 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLLWDWDDW

Head-to-head

Portland Hearts of Pine 0–1 Sarasota Paradise (1 last)

Sarasota Paradise1-0Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Hearts of Pine 1462 · Sarasota Paradise 1516

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Draw	Sarasota Paradise
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	40%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarasota Paradise (rating 1462 vs 1516).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Sarasota Paradise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.60▼	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +61’	2.20	3.50	2.70
18:36 +7’	2.25▲	3.50	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +121’	2.32	3.44	2.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 0–0–1 Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 USA USL League One	Sarasota Paradise	1-0 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	28	18	4	6	50	30	58
2	Charlotte Independence	27	17	5	5	63	39	56
3	Forward Madison FC	27	15	6	6	50	26	51
4	One Knoxville SC	27	13	8	6	44	31	47
5	AC Boise	27	13	7	7	43	37	46
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	13	4	9	47	38	43
7	Spokane Velocity FC	24	12	4	8	36	33	40
8	Fort Wayne FC	26	10	7	9	41	35	37
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
11	Sarasota Paradise	26	8	6	12	33	39	30
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	27	7	9	11	39	46	30
13	Westchester SC	27	8	5	14	46	45	29
14	FC Naples	26	8	4	14	29	43	28
15	Greenville Triumph SC	26	6	5	15	29	48	23
16	New York Cosmos	26	6	4	16	32	52	22
17	Richmond Kickers	26	5	5	16	25	53	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Hearts of Pine	Sarasota Paradise
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-1 D	3-2 W
Charlotte Independence	2-3 L	1-3 L
Richmond Kickers	1-1 D	0-0 D
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Forward Madison FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Greenville Triumph SC	3-3 D	6-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sarasota Paradise (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Hearts of Pine

DLLDDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
14/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
07/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
03/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	1	4	L
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
09/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
02/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	3-1	3-3	3	2	D

Sarasota Paradise

DDLLWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	4-0	6-0	7	2	W
13/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Hearts of Pine win (39%). Probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 39%, draw 26%, Sarasota Paradise 34%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Portland Hearts of Pine 1.48 · Sarasota Paradise 1.36), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.