Football · USA USL League One · 04/10, 01:30

Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence

Team pages: Sarasota Paradise · Charlotte Independence

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Sarasota Paradise1.83

Charlotte Independence1.6

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Sarasota Paradise Draw Charlotte Independence

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarasota Paradise 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWDDWW

Charlotte Independence 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWDWD

Head-to-head

Sarasota Paradise 0–1 Charlotte Independence (1 last)

Charlotte Independence3-1Sarasota Paradise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1525 · Charlotte Independence 1525

	Sarasota Paradise	Draw	Charlotte Independence
Our model	43%	24%	33%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarasota Paradise	Charlotte Independence
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 23:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.23 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.71
2	2.25 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.78

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +3’	2.55	3.60	2.25
22:45 +11’	2.20▼	3.60	2.63▲
05:32 +12’	2.20	3.60	2.60▼
08:05 +5’	2.15▼	3.70▲	2.63▲
23:44 +7’	2.10▼	3.70	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:57 +59’	2.22	3.59	2.72
01:30 +100’	2.23▲	3.62▲	2.73▲
23:47 +4’	2.23	3.71▲	2.78▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarasota Paradise 0–0–1 Charlotte Independence

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	3-1 HT 3-0	Sarasota Paradise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	64	40	57
3	Forward Madison FC	28	15	6	7	50	27	51
4	One Knoxville SC	28	13	9	6	44	31	48
5	Spokane Velocity FC	26	14	4	8	38	33	46
6	AC Boise	28	13	7	8	44	39	46
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	28	13	4	11	47	40	43
8	Fort Wayne FC	27	10	8	9	42	36	38
9	Corpus Christi FC	27	9	9	9	32	37	36
10	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	37	40	33
11	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
12	FC Naples	27	9	4	14	30	43	31
13	Westchester SC	28	8	6	14	46	45	30
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	40	50	30
15	New York Cosmos	27	7	4	16	35	54	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	27	6	5	16	30	51	23
17	Richmond Kickers	27	5	5	17	27	56	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarasota Paradise	Charlotte Independence
Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1 W	3-2 W
Greenville Triumph SC	6-0 W	1-0 W
Forward Madison FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Union Omaha	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sarasota Paradise (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarasota Paradise

DLLWDWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-1	4-1	8	7	W
20/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	4-0	6-0	7	2	W
13/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Charlotte Independence

WWDWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
17/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	4-0	5-0	3	4	W
23/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
09/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	9	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarasota Paradise win (43%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 43%, draw 24%, Charlotte Independence 33%.

How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Sarasota Paradise 1.83 · Charlotte Independence 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.