Football · USA USL League One · 04/10, 01:30

Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs Forward Madison FC

Team pages: Fort Wayne FC · Forward Madison FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Fort Wayne FC1.55

Forward Madison FC1.38

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Fort Wayne FC Draw Forward Madison FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fort Wayne FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWLDD

Forward Madison FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWDLWL

Head-to-head

Fort Wayne FC 0–1–0 Forward Madison FC (1 last)

Forward Madison FC1-1Fort Wayne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1469 · Forward Madison FC 1528

	Fort Wayne FC	Draw	Forward Madison FC
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1469 vs 1528).
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fort Wayne FC	Forward Madison FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.8	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.89 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:54 +2’	2.15	3.50	2.80
05:36 +8’	2.20▲	3.60▲	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:43 +88’	2.18	3.47	2.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fort Wayne FC 0–1–0 Forward Madison FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Fort Wayne FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	64	40	57
3	Forward Madison FC	28	15	6	7	50	27	51
4	One Knoxville SC	28	13	9	6	44	31	48
5	Spokane Velocity FC	26	14	4	8	38	33	46
6	AC Boise	28	13	7	8	44	39	46
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	28	13	4	11	47	40	43
8	Fort Wayne FC	27	10	8	9	42	36	38
9	Corpus Christi FC	27	9	9	9	32	37	36
10	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	37	40	33
11	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
12	FC Naples	27	9	4	14	30	43	31
13	Westchester SC	28	8	6	14	46	45	30
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	40	50	30
15	New York Cosmos	27	7	4	16	35	54	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	27	6	5	16	30	51	23
17	Richmond Kickers	27	5	5	17	27	56	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fort Wayne FC	Forward Madison FC
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	1-1 D
One Knoxville SC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Greenville Triumph SC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Richmond Kickers	2-0 W	2-1 W
Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1 W	2-1 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-2 L	0-1 L
Antelope Valley Alta	0-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fort Wayne FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fort Wayne FC

LLLWWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
20/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	7	8	D
17/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
13/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	7	W
06/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-2	2-4	9	7	L
03/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L

Forward Madison FC

DWDWDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
20/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	6	12	W
17/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
03/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
23/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
17/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
13/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	11	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs Forward Madison FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fort Wayne FC win (41%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 41%, draw 26%, Forward Madison FC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs Forward Madison FC?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Fort Wayne FC 1.55 · Forward Madison FC 1.38), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs Forward Madison FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.