Football · USA USL League One · 04/10, 03:00

Prediction: Spokane Velocity FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Team pages: Spokane Velocity FC · Portland Hearts of Pine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Spokane Velocity FC2.06

Portland Hearts of Pine1.16

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Spokane Velocity FC Draw Portland Hearts of Pine

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Spokane Velocity FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLDWW

Portland Hearts of Pine 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWWDL

Head-to-head

Spokane Velocity FC 0–2–2 Portland Hearts of Pine (4 last)

Portland Hearts of Pine2-1Spokane Velocity FC
Spokane Velocity FC1-1Portland Hearts of Pine
Portland Hearts of Pine6-1Spokane Velocity FC
Spokane Velocity FC0-0Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spokane Velocity FC 1533 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1469

	Spokane Velocity FC	Draw	Portland Hearts of Pine
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spokane Velocity FC (rating 1533 vs 1469).
H2H favours Portland Hearts of Pine: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spokane Velocity FC	Portland Hearts of Pine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.03 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.54

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:54 +4’	1.57	3.90	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +32’	1.60	4.03	4.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Spokane Velocity FC 0–2–2 Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	2-1 HT 0-1	Spokane Velocity FC
10/11/25 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine
22/10/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	6-1 HT 4-1	Spokane Velocity FC
06/04/25 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	64	40	57
3	Forward Madison FC	28	15	6	7	50	27	51
4	One Knoxville SC	28	13	9	6	44	31	48
5	Spokane Velocity FC	26	14	4	8	38	33	46
6	AC Boise	28	13	7	8	44	39	46
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	28	13	4	11	47	40	43
8	Fort Wayne FC	27	10	8	9	42	36	38
9	Corpus Christi FC	27	9	9	9	32	37	36
10	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	37	40	33
11	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
12	FC Naples	27	9	4	14	30	43	31
13	Westchester SC	28	8	6	14	46	45	30
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	40	50	30
15	New York Cosmos	27	7	4	16	35	54	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	27	6	5	16	30	51	23
17	Richmond Kickers	27	5	5	17	27	56	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spokane Velocity FC	Portland Hearts of Pine
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-0 W	1-1 D
Forward Madison FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Sarasota Paradise	1-1 D	1-4 L
Westchester SC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Corpus Christi FC	2-3 L	0-2 L
Fort Wayne FC	3-1 W	1-4 L
Charlotte Independence	3-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Spokane Velocity FC (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spokane Velocity FC

WWLWWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
21/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	2	3	D
16/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
06/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
23/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-1	8	5	W
16/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
26/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	6	6	W
23/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	3-0	2	3	W

Portland Hearts of Pine

LLDDLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	1-4	1	7	L
20/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
14/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
07/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
03/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	1	4	L
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
09/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spokane Velocity FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spokane Velocity FC win (57%). Probabilities: Spokane Velocity FC 57%, draw 23%, Portland Hearts of Pine 20%.

How many goals are expected in Spokane Velocity FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Spokane Velocity FC 2.06 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.16), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Spokane Velocity FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.