Football · USA USL League One · 04/10, 01:00
Prediction: FC Naples vs New York Cosmos
Team pages: FC Naples · New York Cosmos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
FC Naples1.55
New York Cosmos1.22
1X2
FC Naples
Draw
New York Cosmos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Naples
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
New York Cosmos
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Naples
0–1
New York Cosmos
(1 last)
- New York Cosmos1-0FC Naples
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Naples 1490 · New York Cosmos 1510
| FC Naples | Draw | New York Cosmos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Naples | New York Cosmos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 3.3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.2 | 5.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Naples 0–0–1 New York Cosmos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/26 USA USL League One | New York Cosmos | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Naples |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 31 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 40 | 57 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 27 | 51 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 31 | 48 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity FC | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 33 | 46 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 46 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 40 | 43 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 36 | 38 |
| 9 | Corpus Christi FC | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 37 | 36 |
| 10 | Sarasota Paradise | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 37 | 40 | 33 |
| 11 | Antelope Valley Alta | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 40 | 32 |
| 12 | FC Naples | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 43 | 31 |
| 13 | Westchester SC | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 46 | 45 | 30 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 50 | 30 |
| 15 | New York Cosmos | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 35 | 54 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph SC | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 30 | 51 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 27 | 56 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Naples | New York Cosmos |
|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 1-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Fort Wayne FC | 2-2 D | 4-2 W |
| AC Boise | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Union Omaha | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Antelope Valley Alta | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Westchester SC | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Naples
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 20/09 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/08 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 26/07 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
New York Cosmos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 20/09 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/09 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 20/08 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 06/08 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Naples vs New York Cosmos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Naples win (44%). Probabilities: FC Naples 44%, draw 26%, New York Cosmos 29%.
How many goals are expected in FC Naples vs New York Cosmos?
The model expects 2.77 goals (FC Naples 1.55 · New York Cosmos 1.22), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Naples vs New York Cosmos?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.