Football · China Division 2 · 22/08, 10:00

Prediction: Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei

Team pages: Changchun Xidu · Dalian Kewei

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

Changchun Xidu0.63

Dalian Kewei1.32

1X2

17% 29% 53%

Changchun Xidu Draw Dalian Kewei

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Xidu 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Dalian Kewei 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Changchun Xidu 0–1 Dalian Kewei (1 last)

Dalian Kewei3-0Changchun Xidu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Xidu 1458 · Dalian Kewei 1549

	Changchun Xidu	Draw	Dalian Kewei
Our model	16%	31%	52%
Market	18%	28%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dalian Kewei (rating 1458 vs 1549).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Xidu	Dalian Kewei
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.8	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.20

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:00 +2’	5.00	3.20	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Xidu 0–0–1 Dalian Kewei

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 China Division 2	Dalian Kewei	3-0 HT 1-0	Changchun Xidu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	21	12	4	5	31	19	40
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	21	12	3	6	29	17	39
3	Dalian Kewei	21	9	10	2	21	12	37
4	Shanghai Port Reserves	21	11	4	6	34	19	37
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	21	8	6	7	23	21	30
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	21	6	10	5	18	18	28
7	Nantong Haimen Codion	21	5	10	6	23	21	25
8	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	21	4	13	4	13	16	25
9	Qingdao Red Lions	21	5	10	6	22	18	25
10	Changchun Xidu	21	2	11	8	13	27	17
11	Shanghai Segenda	21	2	8	11	20	37	14
12	Beijing Institute	21	2	7	12	17	39	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Xidu	Dalian Kewei
Beijing Institute	2-2 D	1-0 W
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	1-2 L	0-2 L
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	0-1 L	2-0 W
Shanghai Segenda	1-1 D	1-1 D
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-1 D	2-2 D
Shanghai Port Reserves	0-2 L	1-0 W
Tai'an Tiankuang	1-0 W	1-0 W
Nantong Haimen Codion	0-0 D	2-1 W
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 3 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dalian Kewei (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Changchun Xidu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
05/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
25/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
05/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
27/06	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
23/06	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	0-3	3	7	L

Dalian Kewei

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
09/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
02/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
25/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
21/07	Beijing Guoan China FA Cup	0-1	1-2	1	0	L
18/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
12/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
08/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
04/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/06	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dalian Kewei win (53%). Probabilities: Changchun Xidu 17%, draw 29%, Dalian Kewei 53%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei?

The model expects 1.95 goals (Changchun Xidu 0.63 · Dalian Kewei 1.32), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Xidu vs Dalian Kewei?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.