Prediction: Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Expected goals: 1.68 (Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.17 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 0.51). The model gives 53% home, 31% draw, 17% away. Under 2 goals (60%) and not both to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-0.
Recent form leaves Shandong Taishan Reserves with 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic has piled up 2-6-2 in the same span. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Shandong Taishan Reserves won 3 and Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 0, with 2 draws.
| Shandong Taishan Reserves | Draw | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 34% | 15% |
| Market | 54% | 28% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shandong Taishan Reserves (rating 1542 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Shandong Taishan Reserves: 3-2-0.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shandong Taishan Reserves | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.6 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shandong Taishan Reserves 3–2–0 Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 China Division 2 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Shandong Taishan Reserves |
| 15/06/25 China Division 2 | Shandong Taishan Reserves | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic |
| 05/04/25 China Division 2 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Shandong Taishan Reserves |
| 15/06/24 China Division 2 | Shandong Taishan Reserves | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic |
| 05/04/24 China Division 2 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Shandong Taishan Reserves |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port Reserves | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Shandong Taishan Reserves | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Dalian Kewei | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 22 |
| 5 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 18 |
| 7 | Qingdao Red Lions | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 10 | Shanghai Segenda | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| 11 | Changchun Xidu | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 11 |
| 12 | Beijing Institute | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shandong Taishan Reserves | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Nantong Haimen Codion | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Shanghai Port Reserves | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Dalian Kewei | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Changchun Xidu | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Shanghai Segenda | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Qingdao Red Lions | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 5 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shandong Taishan Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/05 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/06 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China FA Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 05/06 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/05 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Meizhou Hakka China FA Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/04 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shandong Taishan Reserves win (53%). Probabilities: Shandong Taishan Reserves 53%, draw 31%, Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 17%.
How many goals are expected in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?
The model expects 1.68 goals (Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.17 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 0.51), with a 60% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?
The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.