Prediction: Guangdong Mingtu vs Shenzhen 2028
Expected goals: 2.28 (Guangdong Mingtu 0.98 · Shenzhen 2028 1.3). The model gives 27% home, 30% draw, 43% away. Under 2.25 goals (53%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Guangdong Mingtu sits at 3-5-2 (W-D-L), while Shenzhen 2028 arrives on a 5-2-3 run. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Guangdong Mingtu won 0 and Shenzhen 2028 2, with 1 draw.
| Guangdong Mingtu | Draw | Shenzhen 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 31% | 42% |
| Market | 27% | 30% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Shenzhen 2028: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guangdong Mingtu | Shenzhen 2028 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.5 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong Mingtu 0–1–2 Shenzhen 2028
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 China Division 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Guangdong Mingtu |
| 01/06/25 China Division 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Guangdong Mingtu |
| 23/03/25 China Division 2 | Guangdong Mingtu | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Shenzhen 2028 |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Hubei Istar | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | Xiamen Feilu | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Jiangxi Lushan | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 6 | Ganzhou Ruishi | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 7 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 19 |
| 8 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 9 | Guangdong Mingtu | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 16 |
| 10 | Wenzhou FC | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Guangdong Mingtu | Shenzhen 2028 |
|---|---|---|
| Xiamen Feilu | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Ganzhou Ruishi | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Wenzhou FC | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Hubei Istar | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Jiangxi Lushan | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 5 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Shenzhen 2028 (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guangdong Mingtu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/04 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
Shenzhen 2028
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Shaanxi Union China FA Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guangdong Mingtu vs Shenzhen 2028?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Shenzhen 2028 win (43%). Probabilities: Guangdong Mingtu 27%, draw 30%, Shenzhen 2028 43%.
How many goals are expected in Guangdong Mingtu vs Shenzhen 2028?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Guangdong Mingtu 0.98 · Shenzhen 2028 1.3), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Guangdong Mingtu vs Shenzhen 2028?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.