Prediction: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Shanghai Segenda
Expected goals: 2.39 (Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1.59 · Shanghai Segenda 0.79). The model gives 55% home, 27% draw, 18% away. Over 2.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-0.
On recent form, Shanxi Chongde Ronghai is 4-4-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Shanghai Segenda 3-3-4 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Shanxi Chongde Ronghai won 1 and Shanghai Segenda 0.
| Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | Draw | Shanghai Segenda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (rating 1533 vs 1451).
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | Shanghai Segenda | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.7 | 1.8 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.7 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1–0–0 Shanghai Segenda
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 China Division 2 | Shanghai Segenda | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port Reserves | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Shandong Taishan Reserves | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Dalian Kewei | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 22 |
| 5 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 18 |
| 7 | Qingdao Red Lions | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 10 | Shanghai Segenda | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| 11 | Changchun Xidu | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 11 |
| 12 | Beijing Institute | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | Shanghai Segenda |
|---|---|---|
| Tai'an Tiankuang | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Beijing Institute | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Qingdao Red Lions | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Changchun Xidu | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Nantong Haimen Codion | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/06 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Qingdao West Coast China FA Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Changchun Yatai China FA Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 29/04 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
Shanghai Segenda
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Shanghai Port China FA Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Yanbian Longding China FA Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Shanghai Segenda?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanxi Chongde Ronghai win (55%). Probabilities: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 55%, draw 27%, Shanghai Segenda 18%.
How many goals are expected in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Shanghai Segenda?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1.59 · Shanghai Segenda 0.79), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Shanghai Segenda?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.