Football · China Division 2 · 18/07, 10:00
Prediction: Changchun Xidu vs Shanghai Port Reserves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
Changchun Xidu0.79
Shanghai Port Reserves1.23
1X2
Changchun Xidu
Draw
Shanghai Port Reserves
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Changchun Xidu
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Shanghai Port Reserves
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Changchun Xidu
0–2–1
Shanghai Port Reserves
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Changchun Xidu 1466 · Shanghai Port Reserves 1535
| Changchun Xidu | Draw | Shanghai Port Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 32% | 45% |
| Market | 24% | 29% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanghai Port Reserves (rating 1466 vs 1535).
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Changchun Xidu | Shanghai Port Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.5 | 2.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Xidu 0–2–1 Shanghai Port Reserves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 China Division 2 | Shanghai Port Reserves | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Changchun Xidu |
| 13/07/25 China Division 2 | Changchun Xidu | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Shanghai Port Reserves |
| 06/05/25 China Division 2 | Shanghai Port Reserves | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Changchun Xidu |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shandong Taishan Reserves | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Shanghai Port Reserves | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Dalian Kewei | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 22 |
| 6 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 21 |
| 7 | Qingdao Red Lions | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 8 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 9 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | Changchun Xidu | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 14 |
| 11 | Shanghai Segenda | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 12 |
| 12 | Beijing Institute | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Changchun Xidu | Shanghai Port Reserves |
|---|---|---|
| Tai'an Tiankuang | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Nantong Haimen Codion | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Dalian Kewei | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Qingdao Red Lions | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Beijing Institute | 0-0 D | 5-1 W |
| Shanghai Segenda | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Shandong Taishan Reserves | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 5 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Shanghai Port Reserves (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Changchun Xidu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 23/06 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 05/05 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/04 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Shanghai Port Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
4-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/06 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/05 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/05 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/04 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Changchun Xidu vs Shanghai Port Reserves?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Shanghai Port Reserves win (46%). Probabilities: Changchun Xidu 23%, draw 30%, Shanghai Port Reserves 46%.
How many goals are expected in Changchun Xidu vs Shanghai Port Reserves?
The model expects 2.02 goals (Changchun Xidu 0.79 · Shanghai Port Reserves 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Changchun Xidu vs Shanghai Port Reserves?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.