Football · China Division 2 · 26/07, 13:30
Prediction: Guangdong Mingtu vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.98Total
Guangdong Mingtu1.16
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves0.83
1X2
Guangdong Mingtu
Draw
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Guangdong Mingtu
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Guangdong Mingtu
0–1–2
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
(3 last)
- Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves1-1Guangdong Mingtu
- Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves2-0Guangdong Mingtu
- Guangdong Mingtu1-3Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guangdong Mingtu 1517 · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1420
| Guangdong Mingtu | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 33% | 25% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangdong Mingtu (rating 1517 vs 1420).
- H2H favours Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guangdong Mingtu | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.8 | 1.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong Mingtu 0–1–2 Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 China Division 2 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Guangdong Mingtu |
| 09/06/25 China Division 2 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Guangdong Mingtu |
| 30/03/25 China Division 2 | Guangdong Mingtu | 1-3 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 31 |
| 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hubei Istar | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 29 |
| 4 | Ganzhou Ruishi | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 25 |
| 5 | Xiamen Feilu | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 25 |
| 6 | Jiangxi Lushan | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 25 |
| 7 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 21 |
| 8 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 19 |
| 9 | Guangdong Mingtu | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Wenzhou FC | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 15 |
| 11 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 15 |
| 12 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Guangdong Mingtu | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves |
|---|---|---|
| Jiangxi Lushan | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Shenzhen 2028 | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Guangzhou Dandelion | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Xiamen Feilu | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Ganzhou Ruishi | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Wenzhou FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Hubei Istar | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 5 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Guangdong Mingtu (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guangdong Mingtu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 11/07 | Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 11/07 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 28/06 | Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/06 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 26/05 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guangdong Mingtu vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangdong Mingtu win (43%). Probabilities: Guangdong Mingtu 43%, draw 31%, Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 26%.
How many goals are expected in Guangdong Mingtu vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves?
The model expects 1.98 goals (Guangdong Mingtu 1.16 · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 0.83), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Guangdong Mingtu vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.