Football · China Division 2 · 27/07, 12:30

Prediction: Qingdao Red Lions vs Beijing Institute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Qingdao Red Lions1.41

Beijing Institute0.61

1X2

56% 27% 16%

Qingdao Red Lions Draw Beijing Institute

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Qingdao Red Lions 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDWDLL

Beijing Institute 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDLDLDLL

Head-to-head

Qingdao Red Lions 2–1–3 Beijing Institute (6 last)

Beijing Institute1-1Qingdao Red Lions
Beijing Institute1-2Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions2-1Beijing Institute
Beijing Institute2-0Qingdao Red Lions
Beijing Institute2-0Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions1-2Beijing Institute

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qingdao Red Lions 1500 · Beijing Institute 1450

	Qingdao Red Lions	Draw	Beijing Institute
Our model	55%	30%	15%
Market	57%	26%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qingdao Red Lions (rating 1500 vs 1450).
H2H favours Beijing Institute: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qingdao Red Lions	Beijing Institute
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.6	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:12 +1’	1.57	3.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qingdao Red Lions 2–1–3 Beijing Institute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	1-1 HT 0-0	Qingdao Red Lions
22/07/23 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	1-2 HT 1-0	Qingdao Red Lions
06/06/23 China Division 2	Qingdao Red Lions	2-1 HT 0-1	Beijing Institute
25/11/20 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	2-0	Qingdao Red Lions
28/09/19 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	2-0 HT 0-0	Qingdao Red Lions
15/06/19 China Division 2	Qingdao Red Lions	1-2 HT 1-1	Beijing Institute

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	18	11	3	4	26	15	36
2	Shanghai Port Reserves	16	10	4	2	29	10	34
3	Dalian Kewei	18	8	8	2	16	8	32
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	16	8	3	5	22	15	27
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	16	7	4	5	17	14	25
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	17	4	9	4	15	16	21
7	Qingdao Red Lions	17	3	8	6	14	16	17
8	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	16	2	10	4	7	12	16
9	Nantong Haimen Codion	16	2	9	5	16	16	15
10	Changchun Xidu	17	2	9	6	9	21	15
11	Shanghai Segenda	18	2	7	9	18	32	13
12	Beijing Institute	15	1	6	8	11	25	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qingdao Red Lions	Beijing Institute
Tai'an Tiankuang	0-1 L	1-1 D
Shandong Taishan Reserves	0-1 L	1-3 L
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	0-0 D	1-1 D
Shanghai Segenda	2-0 W	1-0 W
Dalian Kewei	0-0 D	0-1 L
Shanghai Port Reserves	2-1 W	1-5 L
Changchun Xidu	1-1 D	0-0 D
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Qingdao Red Lions (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Qingdao Red Lions

LWDWDDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
05/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
27/06	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
23/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
20/06	Wuhan Three Towns China FA Cup	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
14/06	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
07/06	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
27/05	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	2-0	3-2	3	8	W
23/05	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-1	10	5	L

Beijing Institute

DDWDLDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-4	1-5	3	1	L
28/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
24/06	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
13/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
06/06	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
27/05	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
23/05	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
04/05	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
30/04	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qingdao Red Lions vs Beijing Institute?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Qingdao Red Lions win (56%). Probabilities: Qingdao Red Lions 56%, draw 27%, Beijing Institute 16%.

How many goals are expected in Qingdao Red Lions vs Beijing Institute?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Qingdao Red Lions 1.41 · Beijing Institute 0.61), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qingdao Red Lions vs Beijing Institute?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.