Football · China Division 2 · 18/07, 13:00
Prediction: Beijing Institute vs Dalian Kewei
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Beijing Institute0.6
Dalian Kewei1.53
1X2
Beijing Institute
Draw
Dalian Kewei
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Beijing Institute
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Dalian Kewei
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Beijing Institute
0–1–0
Dalian Kewei
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Beijing Institute 1468 · Dalian Kewei 1534
| Beijing Institute | Draw | Dalian Kewei | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 28% | 59% |
| Market | 15% | 24% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dalian Kewei (rating 1468 vs 1534).
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Beijing Institute | Dalian Kewei | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 2.4 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Institute 0–1–0 Dalian Kewei
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 China Division 2 | Dalian Kewei | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Beijing Institute |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shandong Taishan Reserves | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Shanghai Port Reserves | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Dalian Kewei | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 22 |
| 6 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 21 |
| 7 | Qingdao Red Lions | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 8 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 9 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 14 |
| 10 | Changchun Xidu | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 14 |
| 11 | Shanghai Segenda | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 12 |
| 12 | Beijing Institute | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Beijing Institute | Dalian Kewei |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Port Reserves | 1-5 L | 1-0 W |
| Tai'an Tiankuang | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Changchun Xidu | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Shanghai Segenda | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Qingdao Red Lions | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Nantong Haimen Codion | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Beijing Institute
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
1-4 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 28/06 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 24/06 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/05 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 30/04 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
Dalian Kewei
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 08/07 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/06 | Liaoning Ironman China FA Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 05/06 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 26/05 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Nantong Zhiyun China FA Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Beijing Institute vs Dalian Kewei?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Dalian Kewei win (60%). Probabilities: Beijing Institute 14%, draw 26%, Dalian Kewei 60%.
How many goals are expected in Beijing Institute vs Dalian Kewei?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Beijing Institute 0.6 · Dalian Kewei 1.53), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Beijing Institute vs Dalian Kewei?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.