Football · China Division 2 · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Changchun Xidu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Shandong Taishan Reserves1.71

Changchun Xidu0.43

1X2

69% 22% 9%

Shandong Taishan Reserves Draw Changchun Xidu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Shandong Taishan Reserves 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWWWWW

Changchun Xidu 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLDDWL

Head-to-head

Shandong Taishan Reserves 1–1–1 Changchun Xidu (3 last)

Changchun Xidu1-1Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shandong Taishan Reserves4-1Changchun Xidu
Changchun Xidu2-0Shandong Taishan Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1554 · Changchun Xidu 1459

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Draw	Changchun Xidu
Our model	68%	24%	8%
Market	70%	21%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shandong Taishan Reserves (rating 1554 vs 1459).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Changchun Xidu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.3	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.33

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +6’	1.28	4.33	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1–1–1 Changchun Xidu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/26 China Division 2	Changchun Xidu	1-1 HT 1-0	Shandong Taishan Reserves
02/07/25 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	4-1 HT 3-1	Changchun Xidu
27/04/25 China Division 2	Changchun Xidu	2-0 HT 1-0	Shandong Taishan Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	17	11	2	4	25	14	35
2	Shanghai Port Reserves	16	10	4	2	29	10	34
3	Dalian Kewei	17	7	8	2	14	8	29
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	16	8	3	5	22	15	27
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	16	7	4	5	17	14	25
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	16	4	9	3	15	14	21
7	Qingdao Red Lions	17	3	8	6	14	16	17
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	16	2	9	5	16	16	15
9	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	15	2	9	4	5	10	15
10	Changchun Xidu	16	2	8	6	8	20	14
11	Shanghai Segenda	17	2	6	9	16	30	12
12	Beijing Institute	15	1	6	8	11	25	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Changchun Xidu
Shanghai Segenda	2-1 W	0-1 L
Qingdao Red Lions	1-0 W	1-1 D
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	3-1 W	0-0 D
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	1-0 W	0-3 L
Beijing Institute	3-1 W	0-0 D
Tai'an Tiankuang	1-0 W	1-0 W
Nantong Haimen Codion	0-0 D	0-0 D
Shanghai Port Reserves	0-1 L	0-2 L
Dalian Kewei	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Shandong Taishan Reserves (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shandong Taishan Reserves

LLLDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/07	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
04/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
28/06	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	14	2	W
24/06	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
20/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/06	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/05	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
22/05	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/05	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-2	1-2	5	6	L

Changchun Xidu

DLLDDLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
05/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
27/06	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
23/06	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
07/06	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
27/05	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
23/05	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-3	7	2	L
10/05	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
05/05	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Changchun Xidu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shandong Taishan Reserves win (69%). Probabilities: Shandong Taishan Reserves 69%, draw 22%, Changchun Xidu 9%.

How many goals are expected in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Changchun Xidu?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.71 · Changchun Xidu 0.43), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Changchun Xidu?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.