Football · China Division 2 · 25/07, 13:30

Prediction: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Shanghai Segenda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.81Total

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1.13

Shanghai Segenda0.68

1X2

46% 32% 22%

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic Draw Shanghai Segenda

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDDLDW

Shanghai Segenda 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDDDLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 0–1 Shanghai Segenda (1 last)

Shanghai Segenda2-1Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1491 · Shanghai Segenda 1452

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Draw	Shanghai Segenda
Our model	45%	34%	21%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Shanghai Segenda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X2.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:56 +13’	1.91	2.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 0–0–1 Shanghai Segenda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 China Division 2	Shanghai Segenda	2-1 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	17	11	2	4	25	14	35
2	Shanghai Port Reserves	16	10	4	2	29	10	34
3	Dalian Kewei	17	7	8	2	14	8	29
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	16	8	3	5	22	15	27
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	16	7	4	5	17	14	25
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	16	4	9	3	15	14	21
7	Qingdao Red Lions	17	3	8	6	14	16	17
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	16	2	9	5	16	16	15
9	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	15	2	9	4	5	10	15
10	Changchun Xidu	16	2	8	6	8	20	14
11	Shanghai Segenda	17	2	6	9	16	30	12
12	Beijing Institute	15	1	6	8	11	25	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Shanghai Segenda
Nantong Haimen Codion	0-0 D	2-2 D
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-3 L	1-2 L
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	0-0 D	1-2 L
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-0 D	0-2 L
Dalian Kewei	0-0 D	1-1 D
Shanghai Port Reserves	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

WLDDDDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Shaanxi Union China FA Cup	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
19/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
04/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
27/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/06	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
19/06	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China FA Cup	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
13/06	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
05/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
26/05	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
16/05	Meizhou Hakka China FA Cup	2-0	2-1	6	3	W

Shanghai Segenda

LDDDLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
12/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
05/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
27/06	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
23/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/06	Shanghai Port China FA Cup	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
13/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
06/06	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
27/05	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
23/05	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Shanghai Segenda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic win (46%). Probabilities: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 46%, draw 32%, Shanghai Segenda 22%.

How many goals are expected in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Shanghai Segenda?

The model expects 1.81 goals (Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1.13 · Shanghai Segenda 0.68), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Shanghai Segenda?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.