Football · China Division 2 · 01/08, 10:00
Prediction: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Beijing Institute
Team pages: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai · Beijing Institute
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai2.46
Beijing Institute0.79
1X2
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Draw
Beijing Institute
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Beijing Institute
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
3–1–1
Beijing Institute
(5 last)
- Beijing Institute1-2Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
- Shanxi Chongde Ronghai2-1Beijing Institute
- Beijing Institute0-2Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
- Shanxi Chongde Ronghai1-1Beijing Institute
- Beijing Institute4-0Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1561 · Beijing Institute 1425
| Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | Draw | Beijing Institute | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 17% | 9% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (rating 1561 vs 1425).
- H2H favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | Beijing Institute | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 2.8 | 1.6 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.5 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 3–1–1 Beijing Institute
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 China Division 2 | Beijing Institute | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai |
| 02/07/25 China Division 2 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Beijing Institute |
| 26/04/25 China Division 2 | Beijing Institute | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai |
| 01/06/24 China Division 2 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Beijing Institute |
| 24/03/24 China Division 2 | Beijing Institute | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shandong Taishan Reserves | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 36 |
| 2 | Shanghai Port Reserves | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Dalian Kewei | 18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
| 4 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 15 | 30 |
| 5 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 29 |
| 6 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | Qingdao Red Lions | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 20 |
| 8 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 18 |
| 9 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic | 17 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 17 |
| 10 | Changchun Xidu | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 15 |
| 11 | Shanghai Segenda | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 13 |
| 12 | Beijing Institute | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai | Beijing Institute |
|---|---|---|
| Nantong Haimen Codion | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Dalian Young Boy Reserves | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Dalian Kewei | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Shanghai Segenda | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Shandong Taishan Reserves | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Tai'an Tiankuang | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Qingdao Red Lions | 2-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 08/07 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/06 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Qingdao West Coast China FA Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
Beijing Institute
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Dalian Kewei China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
1-4 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 28/06 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 24/06 | Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/05 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Beijing Institute?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanxi Chongde Ronghai win (73%). Probabilities: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 73%, draw 17%, Beijing Institute 9%.
How many goals are expected in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Beijing Institute?
The model expects 3.25 goals (Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 2.46 · Beijing Institute 0.79), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Beijing Institute?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.