Football · China Division 2 · 09/08, 13:30

Prediction: Guangdong Mingtu vs Wenzhou FC

Team pages: Guangdong Mingtu · Wenzhou FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.91Total

Guangdong Mingtu1.19

Wenzhou FC0.72

1X2

47% 31% 22%

Guangdong Mingtu Draw Wenzhou FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Guangdong Mingtu 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWDDWD

Wenzhou FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLDDL

Head-to-head

Guangdong Mingtu 0–2–1 Wenzhou FC (3 last)

Wenzhou FC1-1Guangdong Mingtu
Guangdong Mingtu1-2Wenzhou FC
Wenzhou FC1-1Guangdong Mingtu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangdong Mingtu 1537 · Wenzhou FC 1472

	Guangdong Mingtu	Draw	Wenzhou FC
Our model	46%	33%	21%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 1.91 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangdong Mingtu (rating 1537 vs 1472).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangdong Mingtu	Wenzhou FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +16’	1.91	3.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +13’	2.04	2.79	3.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong Mingtu 0–2–1 Wenzhou FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 China Division 2	Wenzhou FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Guangdong Mingtu
12/07/25 China Division 2	Guangdong Mingtu	1-2 HT 1-1	Wenzhou FC
07/05/25 China Division 2	Wenzhou FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Guangdong Mingtu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	19	13	1	5	29	13	40
2	Shenzhen 2028	19	9	6	4	30	23	33
3	Hubei Istar	19	8	7	4	26	19	31
4	Jiangxi Lushan	19	8	5	6	22	17	29
5	Ganzhou Ruishi	19	6	8	5	18	19	26
6	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	19	5	10	4	19	25	25
7	Xiamen Feilu	19	6	7	6	27	26	25
8	Guangdong Mingtu	19	4	10	5	19	19	22
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	19	5	5	9	19	27	20
10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	19	4	6	9	15	21	18
11	Wenzhou FC	19	3	8	8	12	22	17
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	19	3	7	9	16	21	16

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangdong Mingtu	Wenzhou FC
Hubei Istar	0-0 D	1-2 L
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	2-0 W	2-1 W
Jiangxi Lushan	0-0 D	1-1 D
Shenzhen 2028	2-2 D	0-4 L
Guangzhou Dandelion	2-1 W	0-0 D
Xiamen Feilu	1-2 L	1-0 W
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	0-0 D	0-2 L
Ganzhou Ruishi	2-0 W	0-1 L
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	1-1 D	0-0 D
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 5 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Guangdong Mingtu (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangdong Mingtu

WDWDLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
27/07	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
11/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-2	2-2	6	4	D
04/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/06	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
27/05	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

Wenzhou FC

LWWWLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
01/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
25/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
18/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	1-2	16	2	L
05/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
24/06	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
20/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
13/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
26/05	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-1	0-4	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangdong Mingtu vs Wenzhou FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangdong Mingtu win (47%). Probabilities: Guangdong Mingtu 47%, draw 31%, Wenzhou FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Guangdong Mingtu vs Wenzhou FC?

The model expects 1.91 goals (Guangdong Mingtu 1.19 · Wenzhou FC 0.72), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangdong Mingtu vs Wenzhou FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.