Football · China Division 2 · 08/08, 13:30

Prediction: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Hubei Istar

Team pages: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves · Hubei Istar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves1.19

Hubei Istar1.09

1X2

37% 30% 32%

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves Draw Hubei Istar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLDDLW

Hubei Istar 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDWDDL

Head-to-head

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 0–1 Hubei Istar (1 last)

Hubei Istar3-0Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1441 · Hubei Istar 1512

	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Draw	Hubei Istar
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubei Istar (rating 1441 vs 1512).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Hubei Istar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	0.9 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +5’	2.40	3.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 0–0–1 Hubei Istar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	3-0 HT 1-0	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	19	13	1	5	29	13	40
2	Shenzhen 2028	19	9	6	4	30	23	33
3	Hubei Istar	19	8	7	4	26	19	31
4	Jiangxi Lushan	19	8	5	6	22	17	29
5	Ganzhou Ruishi	19	6	8	5	18	19	26
6	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	19	5	10	4	19	25	25
7	Xiamen Feilu	19	6	7	6	27	26	25
8	Guangdong Mingtu	19	4	10	5	19	19	22
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	19	5	5	9	19	27	20
10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	19	4	6	9	15	21	18
11	Wenzhou FC	19	3	8	8	12	22	17
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	19	3	7	9	16	21	16

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	Hubei Istar
Xiamen Feilu	5-1 W	0-0 D
Guangdong Mingtu	0-2 L	0-0 D
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	0-0 D	0-1 L
Ganzhou Ruishi	1-1 D	4-4 D
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	0-1 L	1-1 D
Shenzhen 2028	0-1 L	1-2 L
Guangzhou Dandelion	0-0 D	3-2 W
Wenzhou FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Jiangxi Lushan	0-1 L	0-1 L
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hubei Istar (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

LLLDLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	2-1	5-1	5	0	W
27/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
04/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
28/06	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
24/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
20/06	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
26/05	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	1	L

Hubei Istar

LLWDWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
01/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
26/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/07	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-4	0	0	D
27/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
23/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
19/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	3-2	0	2	W
14/06	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
26/05	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Hubei Istar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves win (37%). Probabilities: Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 37%, draw 30%, Hubei Istar 32%.

How many goals are expected in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Hubei Istar?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1.19 · Hubei Istar 1.09), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Hubei Istar?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.