Football · China Division 2 · 08/08, 13:00

Prediction: Beijing Institute vs Shanghai Segenda

Team pages: Beijing Institute · Shanghai Segenda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Beijing Institute1.01

Shanghai Segenda1.39

1X2

26% 29% 45%

Beijing Institute Draw Shanghai Segenda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Beijing Institute 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLLLL

Shanghai Segenda 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLDLDD

Head-to-head

Beijing Institute 1–0 Shanghai Segenda (1 last)

Shanghai Segenda0-1Beijing Institute

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beijing Institute 1409 · Shanghai Segenda 1429

	Beijing Institute	Draw	Shanghai Segenda
Our model	26%	30%	44%
Market	26%	29%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beijing Institute	Shanghai Segenda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.4	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	1.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.10

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +2’	3.40	3.10	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Institute 1–0–0 Shanghai Segenda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 China Division 2	Shanghai Segenda	0-1 HT 0-0	Beijing Institute

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	19	11	4	4	33	15	37
2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	19	11	4	4	28	17	37
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	19	11	3	5	27	15	36
4	Dalian Kewei	19	8	9	2	18	10	33
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	19	8	5	6	23	20	29
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	19	5	9	5	17	18	24
7	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	19	3	12	4	10	14	21
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	19	4	9	6	20	20	21
9	Qingdao Red Lions	19	4	9	6	20	17	21
10	Changchun Xidu	19	2	10	7	10	23	16
11	Shanghai Segenda	19	2	8	9	19	33	14
12	Beijing Institute	19	1	6	12	13	36	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beijing Institute	Shanghai Segenda
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	0-1 L	2-2 D
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-2 L	0-2 L
Qingdao Red Lions	1-6 L	0-2 L
Dalian Kewei	0-1 L	1-1 D
Shanghai Port Reserves	1-5 L	1-1 D
Tai'an Tiankuang	1-1 D	0-0 D
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-3 L	1-2 L
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	0 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Shanghai Segenda (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Beijing Institute

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
29/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
27/07	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-3	1-6	4	1	L
18/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-4	1-5	3	1	L
28/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
24/06	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
13/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
06/06	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

Shanghai Segenda

DDLLLLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
25/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
18/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
12/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
05/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
27/06	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
23/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/06	Shanghai Port China FA Cup	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
13/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
06/06	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-1	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beijing Institute vs Shanghai Segenda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shanghai Segenda win (45%). Probabilities: Beijing Institute 26%, draw 29%, Shanghai Segenda 45%.

How many goals are expected in Beijing Institute vs Shanghai Segenda?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Beijing Institute 1.01 · Shanghai Segenda 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Beijing Institute vs Shanghai Segenda?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.