Football · China Division 2 · 22/08, 10:00

Prediction: Shanghai Port Reserves vs Qingdao Red Lions

Team pages: Shanghai Port Reserves · Qingdao Red Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Shanghai Port Reserves1.25

Qingdao Red Lions0.95

1X2

42% 31% 27%

Shanghai Port Reserves Draw Qingdao Red Lions

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shanghai Port Reserves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWLLL

Qingdao Red Lions 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLWDWD

Head-to-head

Shanghai Port Reserves 0–1 Qingdao Red Lions (1 last)

Qingdao Red Lions2-1Shanghai Port Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shanghai Port Reserves 1474 · Qingdao Red Lions 1524

	Shanghai Port Reserves	Draw	Qingdao Red Lions
Our model	42%	31%	27%
Market	43%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qingdao Red Lions (rating 1474 vs 1524).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shanghai Port Reserves	Qingdao Red Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.9	1.5 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:43 +19’	2.10	3.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanghai Port Reserves 0–0–1 Qingdao Red Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 China Division 2	Qingdao Red Lions	2-1 HT 1-0	Shanghai Port Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	21	12	4	5	31	19	40
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	21	12	3	6	29	17	39
3	Dalian Kewei	21	9	10	2	21	12	37
4	Shanghai Port Reserves	21	11	4	6	34	19	37
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	21	8	6	7	23	21	30
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	21	6	10	5	18	18	28
7	Nantong Haimen Codion	21	5	10	6	23	21	25
8	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	21	4	13	4	13	16	25
9	Qingdao Red Lions	21	5	10	6	22	18	25
10	Changchun Xidu	21	2	11	8	13	27	17
11	Shanghai Segenda	21	2	8	11	20	37	14
12	Beijing Institute	21	2	7	12	17	39	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shanghai Port Reserves	Qingdao Red Lions
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	0-1 L	0-0 D
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-3 L	0-1 L
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-1 L	1-0 W
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	2-1 W	0-0 D
Tai'an Tiankuang	2-3 L	0-1 L
Beijing Institute	5-1 W	6-1 W
Dalian Kewei	0-1 L	0-0 D
Nantong Haimen Codion	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Qingdao Red Lions (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shanghai Port Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
08/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-3	1-3	4	3	L
05/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
01/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
26/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
18/07	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-0	2-0	0	6	W
04/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	4-1	5-1	9	1	W
27/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
23/06	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-2	2-2	3	3	D
14/06	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-1	1-2	4	3	L

Qingdao Red Lions

DDWDLLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
15/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
01/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	3-0	6-1	2	1	W
19/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
05/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
27/06	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
23/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
20/06	Wuhan Three Towns China FA Cup	0-0	0-0	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Qingdao Red Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanghai Port Reserves win (42%). Probabilities: Shanghai Port Reserves 42%, draw 31%, Qingdao Red Lions 27%.

How many goals are expected in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Qingdao Red Lions?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Shanghai Port Reserves 1.25 · Qingdao Red Lions 0.95), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Qingdao Red Lions?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.