Football · China Division 2 · 22/08, 10:00

Prediction: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Team pages: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai1.21

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic0.67

1X2

49% 31% 20%

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai Draw Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1–3–2 Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (6 last)

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic0-0Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic3-2Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai2-0Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai0-1Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai0-0Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1-1Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1569 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1519

	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	Draw	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Our model	48%	33%	19%
Market	50%	29%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (rating 1569 vs 1519).
H2H favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.7	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:28 +22’	1.80	3.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1–3–2 Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	0-0 HT 0-0	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
20/07/25 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	3-2 HT 2-0	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
11/05/25 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	2-0 HT 1-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
16/03/25 China FA Cup	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-1 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
07/07/24 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-0 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
28/04/24 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	1-1 HT 0-0	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	21	12	4	5	31	19	40
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	21	12	3	6	29	17	39
3	Dalian Kewei	21	9	10	2	21	12	37
4	Shanghai Port Reserves	21	11	4	6	34	19	37
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	21	8	6	7	23	21	30
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	21	6	10	5	18	18	28
7	Nantong Haimen Codion	21	5	10	6	23	21	25
8	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	21	4	13	4	13	16	25
9	Qingdao Red Lions	21	5	10	6	22	18	25
10	Changchun Xidu	21	2	11	8	13	27	17
11	Shanghai Segenda	21	2	8	11	20	37	14
12	Beijing Institute	21	2	7	12	17	39	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Qingdao Red Lions	0-1 L	0-0 D
Shanghai Port Reserves	1-0 W	1-0 W
Beijing Institute	2-0 W	1-0 W
Nantong Haimen Codion	2-0 W	0-0 D
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	2-1 W	0-0 D
Dalian Kewei	2-0 W	2-2 D
Shanghai Segenda	2-0 W	2-2 D
Shandong Taishan Reserves	0-1 L	1-3 L
Tai'an Tiankuang	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 6 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
09/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
05/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
26/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
19/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
08/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
05/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
28/06	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	2-0	3-2	5	4	W

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
09/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
05/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
01/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
25/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
22/07	Shaanxi Union China FA Cup	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
19/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
04/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
27/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanxi Chongde Ronghai win (49%). Probabilities: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 49%, draw 31%, Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 20%.

How many goals are expected in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1.21 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 0.67), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Shanxi Chongde Ronghai vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.