Football · China Division 2 · 18/07, 13:30
Prediction: Shenzhen 2028 vs Guangzhou Dandelion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Shenzhen 20281.62
Guangzhou Dandelion0.87
1X2
Shenzhen 2028
Draw
Guangzhou Dandelion
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Shenzhen 2028
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Guangzhou Dandelion
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shenzhen 2028
1–1–1
Guangzhou Dandelion
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shenzhen 2028 1544 · Guangzhou Dandelion 1422
| Shenzhen 2028 | Draw | Guangzhou Dandelion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shenzhen 2028 (rating 1544 vs 1422).
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shenzhen 2028 | Guangzhou Dandelion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 1.6 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen 2028 1–1–1 Guangzhou Dandelion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 China Division 2 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Shenzhen 2028 |
| 08/06/25 China Division 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Guangzhou Dandelion |
| 29/03/25 China Division 2 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Shenzhen 2028 |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 20 | 27 |
| 3 | Hubei Istar | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | Ganzhou Ruishi | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | Xiamen Feilu | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Jiangxi Lushan | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 20 |
| 8 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 19 |
| 9 | Guangdong Mingtu | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 17 |
| 10 | Wenzhou FC | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 14 |
| 12 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangzhou Dandelion |
|---|---|---|
| Guangdong Mingtu | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Xiamen Feilu | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Hubei Istar | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Ganzhou Ruishi | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Shenzhen 2028 (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shenzhen 2028
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Shaanxi Union China FA Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Guangzhou Dandelion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 27/05 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Wuxi Wugo China FA Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shenzhen 2028 vs Guangzhou Dandelion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shenzhen 2028 win (54%). Probabilities: Shenzhen 2028 54%, draw 27%, Guangzhou Dandelion 19%.
How many goals are expected in Shenzhen 2028 vs Guangzhou Dandelion?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Shenzhen 2028 1.62 · Guangzhou Dandelion 0.87), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen 2028 vs Guangzhou Dandelion?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.