Football · China Division 2 · 25/07, 13:30

Prediction: Jiangxi Lushan vs Shenzhen 2028

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Jiangxi Lushan1.17

Shenzhen 20281.15

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Jiangxi Lushan Draw Shenzhen 2028

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Jiangxi Lushan 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWLD

Shenzhen 2028 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWDDW

Head-to-head

Jiangxi Lushan 1–0 Shenzhen 2028 (1 last)

Shenzhen 20280-2Jiangxi Lushan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jiangxi Lushan 1520 · Shenzhen 2028 1530

	Jiangxi Lushan	Draw	Shenzhen 2028
Our model	35%	31%	34%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jiangxi Lushan	Shenzhen 2028
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.2	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +7’	2.50	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiangxi Lushan 1–0–0 Shenzhen 2028

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/26 China Division 2	Shenzhen 2028	0-2 HT 0-2	Jiangxi Lushan

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	16	10	1	5	23	13	31
2	Shenzhen 2028	17	8	6	3	28	21	30
3	Hubei Istar	16	8	5	3	25	17	29
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	17	6	7	4	17	15	25
5	Xiamen Feilu	16	6	7	3	24	17	25
6	Jiangxi Lushan	16	7	4	5	19	14	25
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	17	4	9	4	16	23	21
8	Guangzhou Dandelion	17	5	4	8	18	23	19
9	Guangdong Mingtu	17	3	9	5	17	19	18
10	Wenzhou FC	16	3	6	7	11	19	15
11	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	17	3	6	8	10	18	15
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	16	1	6	9	9	18	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jiangxi Lushan	Shenzhen 2028
Guangdong Mingtu	0-0 D	2-2 D
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	1-2 L	3-1 W
Guangzhou Dandelion	2-0 W	3-1 W
Ganzhou Ruishi	0-1 L	0-3 L
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	1-0 W	1-0 W
Xiamen Feilu	0-2 L	0-0 D
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Jiangxi Lushan

WWLWLLWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
28/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
24/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	Henan China FA Cup	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
13/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
27/05	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
23/05	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
17/05	Dalian K'un City China FA Cup	2-0	2-0	2	1	W

Shenzhen 2028

LLWWDWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
11/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
05/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
28/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
24/06	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
20/06	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
14/06	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
26/05	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
22/05	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
15/05	Shaanxi Union China FA Cup	0-2	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shenzhen 2028?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jiangxi Lushan win (36%). Probabilities: Jiangxi Lushan 36%, draw 30%, Shenzhen 2028 34%.

How many goals are expected in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shenzhen 2028?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Jiangxi Lushan 1.17 · Shenzhen 2028 1.15), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shenzhen 2028?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.