Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Trans Narva

Team pages: Paide Linnameeskond · JK Trans Narva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Paide Linnameeskond1.83

JK Trans Narva0.75

1X2

62% 24% 14%

Paide Linnameeskond Draw JK Trans Narva

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Paide Linnameeskond 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWWLW

JK Trans Narva 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDLDDL

Head-to-head

Paide Linnameeskond 3–2–1 JK Trans Narva (6 last)

JK Trans Narva1-1Paide Linnameeskond
JK Trans Narva1-0Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-1Paide Linnameeskond
JK Trans Narva2-3Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond2-0JK Trans Narva

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1546 vs 1439).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paide Linnameeskond	JK Trans Narva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	0.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.24
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.31 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +10’	1.50	4.20	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +8’	1.55	4.19	5.17
16:06 +70’	1.53▼	4.24▲	5.31▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paide Linnameeskond 3–2–1 JK Trans Narva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-1 HT 1-0	Paide Linnameeskond
20/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-0 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
15/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
07/02/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Trans Narva	1-1 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond
27/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	2-3 HT 0-3	Paide Linnameeskond
20/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	31	24	6	1	85	22	78
2	FC Flora Tallinn	31	18	1	12	60	44	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	31	16	6	9	50	38	54
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	31	15	2	14	42	49	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	31	13	2	16	43	47	41
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	31	10	6	15	43	61	36
8	FC Kuressaare	31	10	5	16	34	49	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	31	5	5	21	24	68	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paide Linnameeskond	JK Trans Narva
JK Tammeka Tartu	2-1 W	0-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-1 L	1-1 D
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paide Linnameeskond

DWWLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
19/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
16/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
16/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D

JK Trans Narva

LDLLLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
10/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
20/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
08/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Trans Narva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paide Linnameeskond win (62%). Probabilities: Paide Linnameeskond 62%, draw 24%, JK Trans Narva 14%.

How many goals are expected in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Trans Narva?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Paide Linnameeskond 1.83 · JK Trans Narva 0.75), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Trans Narva?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.