Football · USA MLS · 07/11, 22:00

Prediction: DC United vs New York City FC

Team pages: DC United · New York City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

DC United1.24

New York City FC1.39

1X2

33% 27% 40%

DC United Draw New York City FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLLLLL

New York City FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLDDWD

Head-to-head

DC United 3–2–1 New York City FC (6 last)

New York City FC0-2DC United
New York City FC1-2DC United
DC United0-0New York City FC
DC United1-1New York City FC
New York City FC2-0DC United
DC United2-0New York City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1429 · New York City FC 1465

	DC United	Draw	New York City FC
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours DC United: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	New York City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.9	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.04 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:09 +11’	2.80	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:34 +57’	3.04	3.57	2.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 3–2–1 New York City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA MLS	New York City FC	0-2 HT 0-1	DC United
31/08/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-2 HT 1-1	DC United
15/05/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-0 HT 0-0	New York City FC
15/09/24 USA MLS	DC United	1-1 HT 0-1	New York City FC
21/04/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-0 HT 1-0	DC United
08/10/23 USA MLS	DC United	2-0 HT 1-0	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	32	21	8	3	66	23	71
2	New England Revolution	32	18	4	10	54	44	58
3	Inter Miami CF	32	15	11	6	75	55	56
4	Chicago Fire	33	16	7	10	61	50	55
5	Charlotte FC	33	15	8	10	63	48	53
6	Philadelphia Union	33	13	8	12	62	51	47
7	FC Cincinnati	33	12	10	11	67	73	46
8	Columbus Crew	33	13	5	15	55	49	44
9	Orlando City SC	33	12	7	14	62	78	43
10	New York Red Bulls	32	11	6	15	43	59	39
11	New York City FC	33	9	12	12	48	45	39
12	Toronto FC	32	9	12	11	50	60	39
13	DC United	33	7	12	14	39	60	33
14	Atlanta United	32	8	6	18	40	56	30
15	CF Montreal	33	6	8	19	37	67	26

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	New York City FC
Orlando City SC	1-4 L	2-2 D
New York Red Bulls	2-1 W	0-1 L
Inter Miami CF	0-4 L	0-2 L
Atlanta United	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: New York City FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DC United

DLDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
29/10	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	6	L
25/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
22/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
18/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-2	1-4	8	4	L
15/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	3-3	10	1	D
20/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
13/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

New York City FC

LWLDLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
29/10	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
25/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
18/10	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
15/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
10/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
19/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs New York City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an New York City FC win (40%). Probabilities: DC United 33%, draw 27%, New York City FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs New York City FC?

The model expects 2.63 goals (DC United 1.24 · New York City FC 1.39), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs New York City FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.