Football · USA MLS · 07/11, 22:00

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United

Team pages: New York Red Bulls · Atlanta United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

New York Red Bulls1.88

Atlanta United1.34

1X2

50% 23% 27%

New York Red Bulls Draw Atlanta United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLLWL

Atlanta United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLWLLL

Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 1–2–3 Atlanta United (6 last)

Atlanta United2-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-3Atlanta United
New York Red Bulls2-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United0-0New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United2-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-2Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1472 · Atlanta United 1473

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Atlanta United
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	50%	23%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atlanta United: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	Atlanta United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.88
X	3.80 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	3.10 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.50 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:18 +2’	2.05	3.80	3.10
23:05 +13’	1.85▼	4.10▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:43 +36’	1.88	4.10	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 1–2–3 Atlanta United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-1 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls
11/02/26 America Friendlies	New York Red Bulls	2-3	Atlanta United
01/06/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-0 HT 2-0	Atlanta United
09/03/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	0-0 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
06/10/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-1 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
22/09/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-2 HT 1-1	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	32	21	8	3	66	23	71
2	New England Revolution	32	18	4	10	54	44	58
3	Inter Miami CF	32	15	11	6	75	55	56
4	Chicago Fire	33	16	7	10	61	50	55
5	Charlotte FC	33	15	8	10	63	48	53
6	Philadelphia Union	33	13	8	12	62	51	47
7	FC Cincinnati	33	12	10	11	67	73	46
8	Columbus Crew	33	13	5	15	55	49	44
9	Orlando City SC	33	12	7	14	62	78	43
10	New York Red Bulls	32	11	6	15	43	59	39
11	New York City FC	33	9	12	12	48	45	39
12	Toronto FC	32	9	12	11	50	60	39
13	DC United	33	7	12	14	39	60	33
14	Atlanta United	32	8	6	18	40	56	30
15	CF Montreal	33	6	8	19	37	67	26

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	Atlanta United
Inter Miami CF	2-0 W	1-3 L
DC United	1-2 L	0-0 D
New York City FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Red Bulls

DLWWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
24/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
18/10	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
15/10	DC United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	11	6	L
11/10	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-0	4-1	4	5	W
01/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
19/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
10/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Atlanta United

DLDWDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
25/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
18/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
15/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
11/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	1-3	5	5	L
27/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Red Bulls win (50%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 50%, draw 23%, Atlanta United 27%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United?

The model expects 3.21 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.88 · Atlanta United 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.