Football · Latvia Virsliga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova vs SC Grobinas

Team pages: SK Super Nova · SC Grobinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

SK Super Nova1.11

SC Grobinas1

1X2

38% 30% 32%

SK Super Nova Draw SC Grobinas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWWLL

SC Grobinas 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLWLDD

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova 3–3–0 SC Grobinas (6 last)

SK Super Nova2-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas0-2SK Super Nova
SC Grobinas0-1SK Super Nova
SC Grobinas0-0SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova0-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas1-1SK Super Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova 1511 · SC Grobinas 1444

	SK Super Nova	Draw	SC Grobinas
Our model	37%	33%	31%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Super Nova (rating 1511 vs 1444).
H2H favours SK Super Nova: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova	SC Grobinas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.42
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	2.55 → 2.70▲	Pinn 3.00 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +8’	2.40	3.25	2.55
15:34 +45’	2.38▼	3.20▼	2.60▲
22:49 +3’	2.30▼	3.20	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +67’	2.40	3.09	2.96
13:05 +3’	2.42▲	3.14▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova 3–3–0 SC Grobinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	2-0 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
20/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-2 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova
09/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-1 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova
18/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-0 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova
26/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
26/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-1 HT 1-0	SK Super Nova

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	30	23	5	2	71	22	74
2	Riga FC	31	22	7	2	86	30	73
3	FK Auda	31	18	7	6	49	30	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	41	43	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	35	35	39
6	SK Super Nova	30	10	5	15	29	40	35
7	FK Jelgava	31	8	8	15	32	49	32
8	SC Grobinas	31	5	11	15	21	52	26
9	Tukums 2000	31	5	9	17	44	61	24
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30	76	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova	SC Grobinas
Ogre United	0-1 L	2-2 D
Riga FC	0-1 L	0-4 L
Tukums 2000	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	0-0 D
FK Auda	1-1 D	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	1-0 W
FK Liepaja	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Super Nova

WLWLDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
15/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
10/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
20/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
06/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
01/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W

SC Grobinas

WLDLLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova vs SC Grobinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Super Nova win (38%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova 38%, draw 30%, SC Grobinas 32%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova vs SC Grobinas?

The model expects 2.11 goals (SK Super Nova 1.11 · SC Grobinas 1), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova vs SC Grobinas?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.