Football · Latvia Virsliga · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils

Team pages: Ogre United · BFC Daugavpils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Ogre United1.19

BFC Daugavpils1.85

1X2

24% 24% 52%

Ogre United Draw BFC Daugavpils

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre United 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLDLW

BFC Daugavpils 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLDLD

Head-to-head

Ogre United 0–4 BFC Daugavpils (4 last)

BFC Daugavpils3-1Ogre United
Ogre United0-4BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils3-1Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils2-1Ogre United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre United 1423 · BFC Daugavpils 1527

	Ogre United	Draw	BFC Daugavpils
Our model	23%	25%	52%
Market	24%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Daugavpils (rating 1423 vs 1527).
H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ogre United	BFC Daugavpils
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.80

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 10:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.04 ★
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.95
2	1.80 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.77

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +4’	3.50	3.60	1.80
13:25 +12’	4.20▲	3.80▲	1.61▼
01:58 +11’	3.90▼	3.75▼	1.67▲
15:49 +4’	3.70▼	3.90▲	1.67
09:58 +8’	3.70	3.80▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +99’	3.97	3.96	1.74
09:01 +7’	3.96▼	3.88▼	1.76▲
11:00 +8’	4.04▲	3.95▲	1.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre United 0–0–4 BFC Daugavpils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 Latvia Cup	BFC Daugavpils	3-1 HT 1-1	Ogre United
19/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	0-4 HT 0-1	BFC Daugavpils
21/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	3-1 HT 2-0	Ogre United
07/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	2-1 HT 2-0	Ogre United

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88	30	76
2	RFS	30	23	5	2	71	22	74
3	FK Auda	31	18	7	6	49	30	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	41	43	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	35	35	39
6	SK Super Nova	31	11	5	15	31	41	38
7	FK Jelgava	31	8	8	15	32	49	32
8	SC Grobinas	32	5	11	16	22	54	26
9	Tukums 2000	32	5	9	18	44	63	24
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30	76	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre United	BFC Daugavpils
SK Super Nova	1-0 W	0-0 D
FK Auda	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Liepaja	2-2 D	0-0 D
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	2-0 W
RFS	0-3 L	1-2 L
FK Jelgava	2-3 L	2-1 W
Riga FC	1-4 L	1-1 D
SC Grobinas	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: BFC Daugavpils (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre United

WLDLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
05/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
30/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
22/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-4	1-4	2	8	L
27/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
06/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W

BFC Daugavpils

WWLWWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
29/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	10	5	W
26/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
04/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BFC Daugavpils win (52%). Probabilities: Ogre United 24%, draw 24%, BFC Daugavpils 52%.

How many goals are expected in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Ogre United 1.19 · BFC Daugavpils 1.85), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.