Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 18/10, 13:30

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Team pages: Harju JK Laagri · Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Harju JK Laagri1.93

Parnu JK Vaprus1.46

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Harju JK Laagri Draw Parnu JK Vaprus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLWDWW

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri 1–1–4 Parnu JK Vaprus (6 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus3-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus0-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-1Parnu JK Vaprus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri 1542 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1452

	Harju JK Laagri	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	47%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harju JK Laagri (rating 1542 vs 1452).
H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri	Parnu JK Vaprus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.70

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.05 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +9’	1.90	3.70	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:28 +9’	2.00	3.59	3.13
15:05 +65’	2.05▲	3.68▲	3.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri 1–1–4 Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	3-2 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
16/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-2 HT 1-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
04/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-2 HT 0-0	Harju JK Laagri
27/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-2 HT 1-2	Parnu JK Vaprus
25/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 HT 1-1	Harju JK Laagri
26/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	0-1 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	31	24	6	1	85	22	78
2	FC Flora Tallinn	31	18	1	12	60	44	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	31	16	6	9	50	38	54
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	31	15	2	14	42	49	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	31	13	2	16	43	47	41
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	31	10	6	15	43	61	36
8	FC Kuressaare	31	10	5	16	34	49	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	31	5	5	21	24	68	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri	Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Nomme United	2-0 W	1-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	2-2 D
Paide Linnameeskond	2-1 W	0-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Harju JK Laagri (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harju JK Laagri

LLWWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
10/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
18/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
13/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	3	11	W
09/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
06/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
29/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	5	L

Parnu JK Vaprus

LLDWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	1	0	L
16/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harju JK Laagri win (48%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri 48%, draw 24%, Parnu JK Vaprus 28%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Harju JK Laagri 1.93 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.