Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 18/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

FC Flora Tallinn2.23

JK Tammeka Tartu1.45

1X2

54% 22% 24%

FC Flora Tallinn Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWWLL

JK Tammeka Tartu 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLWL

Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn 4–2 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn3-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu3-1FC Flora Tallinn
JK Tammeka Tartu3-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn2-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn3-1JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1490 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1527

	FC Flora Tallinn	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.72
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.08
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.97 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +39’	1.65	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:00 +11’	1.72	4.08	3.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 4–0–2 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	3-2 HT 2-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
26/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Flora Tallinn
03/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
20/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
20/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn
30/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	3-1 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	31	24	6	1	85	22	78
2	FC Flora Tallinn	31	18	1	12	60	44	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	31	16	6	9	50	38	54
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	31	15	2	14	42	49	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	31	13	2	16	43	47	41
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	31	10	6	15	43	61	36
8	FC Kuressaare	31	10	5	16	34	49	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	31	5	5	21	24	68	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-3 L	0-6 L
FC Kuressaare	0-2 L	3-1 W
JK Nomme United	3-2 W	4-0 W
JK Trans Narva	2-2 D	2-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 W	1-3 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Flora Tallinn

WLLWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
11/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
20/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	7	0	W
12/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	9	1	W
08/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	4	6	D
05/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	9	L
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W

JK Tammeka Tartu

WWLWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
10/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
20/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
17/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (54%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 54%, draw 22%, JK Tammeka Tartu 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.68 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 2.23 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.45), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.