Football · Latvia Virsliga · 12/10, 17:00

Prediction: FK Liepaja vs FK Auda

Team pages: FK Liepaja · FK Auda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

FK Liepaja1.21

FK Auda1.34

1X2

34% 27% 39%

FK Liepaja Draw FK Auda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Liepaja 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDDD

FK Auda 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWDWD

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja 2–4 FK Auda (6 last)

FK Auda1-0FK Liepaja
FK Auda1-0FK Liepaja
FK Auda3-1FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja1-2FK Auda
FK Auda1-2FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja2-0FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Liepaja 1496 · FK Auda 1565

	FK Liepaja	Draw	FK Auda
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	35%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1496 vs 1565).
H2H favours FK Auda: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Liepaja	FK Auda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5.3	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +6’	2.63	3.50	2.25
19:04 +14’	2.63	3.60▲	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Liepaja 2–0–4 FK Auda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja
11/07/26 Latvia Cup	FK Auda	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja
22/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Liepaja
08/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Auda
20/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Liepaja
27/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88	30	76
2	RFS	30	23	5	2	71	22	74
3	FK Auda	31	18	7	6	49	30	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	41	43	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	31	10	9	12	35	35	39
6	SK Super Nova	31	11	5	15	31	41	38
7	FK Jelgava	31	8	8	15	32	49	32
8	SC Grobinas	32	5	11	16	22	54	26
9	Tukums 2000	32	5	9	18	44	63	24
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30	76	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Liepaja	FK Auda
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	1-0 W
Ogre United	2-2 D	1-0 W
RFS	0-0 D	1-1 D
Riga FC	3-2 W	2-2 D
SC Grobinas	3-1 W	1-0 W
SK Super Nova	2-1 W	1-1 D
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	3-0 W
FK Jelgava	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Liepaja (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Liepaja

LWLWWLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
11/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
07/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L

FK Auda

DWWWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
16/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Liepaja vs FK Auda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Auda win (39%). Probabilities: FK Liepaja 34%, draw 27%, FK Auda 39%.

How many goals are expected in FK Liepaja vs FK Auda?

The model expects 2.55 goals (FK Liepaja 1.21 · FK Auda 1.34), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Liepaja vs FK Auda?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.