Football · Australia Western Australia State League 1 · 01/08, 09:00

Prediction: Gwelup Croatia SC vs Subiaco AFC

Team pages: Gwelup Croatia SC · Subiaco AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Gwelup Croatia SC1.91

Subiaco AFC1.58

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Gwelup Croatia SC Draw Subiaco AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gwelup Croatia SC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Subiaco AFC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLDWL

Head-to-head

Gwelup Croatia SC 3–3 Subiaco AFC (6 last)

Subiaco AFC5-1Gwelup Croatia SC
Gwelup Croatia SC2-1Subiaco AFC
Gwelup Croatia SC0-1Subiaco AFC
Subiaco AFC2-4Gwelup Croatia SC
Subiaco AFC0-1Gwelup Croatia SC
Subiaco AFC2-1Gwelup Croatia SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gwelup Croatia SC 1471 · Subiaco AFC 1438

	Gwelup Croatia SC	Draw	Subiaco AFC
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gwelup Croatia SC	Subiaco AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/0/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:24 +46’	2.00	3.80	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwelup Croatia SC 3–0–3 Subiaco AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Subiaco AFC	5-1 HT 2-0	Gwelup Croatia SC
07/03/26 Australia Friendlies	Gwelup Croatia SC	2-1 HT 0-1	Subiaco AFC
26/07/25 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Gwelup Croatia SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Subiaco AFC
10/05/25 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Subiaco AFC	2-4 HT 0-4	Gwelup Croatia SC
22/06/24 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Subiaco AFC	0-1 HT 0-0	Gwelup Croatia SC
29/07/23 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Subiaco AFC	2-1 HT 0-1	Gwelup Croatia SC

Standings · Australia Western Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Floreat Athena	18	13	3	2	42	18	42
2	UWA-Nedlands FC	18	12	2	4	41	23	38
3	Mandurah City	18	10	3	5	43	32	33
4	Joondalup City	18	10	2	6	33	27	32
5	Inglewood United	18	8	4	6	18	19	28
6	Kingsley Westside	18	8	2	8	29	26	26
7	Quinns FC	18	7	3	8	25	34	24
8	Gwelup Croatia SC	18	5	6	7	28	36	21
9	Murdoch University Melville FC	18	4	7	7	33	37	19
10	Cockburn City	18	5	4	9	29	38	19
11	Subiaco AFC	18	4	1	13	29	42	13
12	Curtin University SC	18	2	3	13	15	33	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gwelup Croatia SC	Subiaco AFC
Murdoch University Melville FC	3-5 L	1-1 D
Cockburn City	2-0 W	1-2 L
Inglewood United	2-1 W	0-2 L
Mandurah City	2-2 D	3-5 L
Curtin University SC	0-0 D	0-2 L
UWA-Nedlands FC	0-2 L	2-3 L
Joondalup City	1-2 L	1-4 L
Floreat Athena	0-4 L	1-2 L
Quinns FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Kingsley Westside	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 7 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gwelup Croatia SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Murdoch University Melville FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	3-5	–	–	L
18/07	Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Inglewood United Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
04/07	Mandurah City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
27/06	Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/06	UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
13/06	Joondalup City Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/06	Floreat Athena Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	0-4	5	3	L
30/05	Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	1-2	6	4	L

Subiaco AFC

LLLLWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Floreat Athena Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
18/07	Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Murdoch University Melville FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
04/07	Inglewood United Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
27/06	Joondalup City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-3	1-4	–	–	L
20/06	Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	Mandurah City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-3	3-5	4	6	L
06/06	Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
30/05	UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-2	2-3	5	5	L
23/05	Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gwelup Croatia SC vs Subiaco AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gwelup Croatia SC win (45%). Probabilities: Gwelup Croatia SC 45%, draw 24%, Subiaco AFC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Gwelup Croatia SC vs Subiaco AFC?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Gwelup Croatia SC 1.91 · Subiaco AFC 1.58), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gwelup Croatia SC vs Subiaco AFC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.