Football · China Division 1 · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: Shaanxi Union vs Shenzhen Juniors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Shaanxi Union1.68

Shenzhen Juniors1.2

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Shaanxi Union Draw Shenzhen Juniors

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shaanxi Union 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLWWLL

Shenzhen Juniors 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLLDDD

Head-to-head

Shaanxi Union 2–1–2 Shenzhen Juniors (5 last)

Shenzhen Juniors1-0Shaanxi Union
Shenzhen Juniors3-3Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union3-2Shenzhen Juniors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shaanxi Union 1512 · Shenzhen Juniors 1524

	Shaanxi Union	Draw	Shenzhen Juniors
Our model	47%	26%	26%
Market	47%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shaanxi Union	Shenzhen Juniors
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.18 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.26
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +49’	1.91	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:09	2.18	3.26	3.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shaanxi Union 2–1–2 Shenzhen Juniors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	1-0 HT 1-0	Shaanxi Union
12/10/25 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	3-3 HT 2-1	Shaanxi Union
01/06/25 China Division 1	Shaanxi Union	3-2 HT 2-1	Shenzhen Juniors
22/09/24 China Division 2	Shaanxi Union	2-1 HT 1-0	Shenzhen Juniors
17/08/24 China Division 2	Shenzhen Juniors	3-2 HT 2-0	Shaanxi Union

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	15	10	3	2	28	14	33
2	Shenzhen Juniors	15	7	5	3	26	18	26
3	Nantong Zhiyun	14	7	5	2	14	10	26
4	Guangxi Hengchen	14	7	4	3	22	13	25
5	Yanbian Longding	15	6	7	2	21	12	25
6	Ningbo Professional FC	15	8	3	4	20	16	24
7	Wuxi Wugo	14	5	5	4	26	17	20
8	Shaanxi Union	14	5	4	5	19	12	19
9	Nanjing City	15	5	3	7	14	16	18
10	Dingnan Ganlian FC	15	3	8	4	21	25	17
11	Dalian K'un City	14	4	4	6	19	22	16
12	Changchun Yatai	14	6	1	7	21	27	15
13	Foshan Nanshi	15	2	4	9	16	29	10
14	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	15	2	4	9	7	18	10
15	Meizhou Hakka	15	5	2	8	15	29	8
16	Suzhou Dongwu	15	2	4	9	11	22	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shaanxi Union	Shenzhen Juniors
Guangxi Hengchen	0-3 L	1-1 D
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-2 L	0-0 D
Suzhou Dongwu	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen Juniors (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shaanxi Union

WWLWDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China FA Cup	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
18/07	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
11/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	4-0	5	1	W
04/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
27/06	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-2	0	2	L
19/06	Zhejiang China FA Cup	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
14/06	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
29/05	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
24/05	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
15/05	Shenzhen 2028 China FA Cup	2-0	2-0	7	7	W

Shenzhen Juniors

WWWDDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	3-3	9	0	D
04/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
27/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	3-3	4-5	6	3	L
19/06	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China FA Cup	0-3	1-3	2	5	L
14/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
29/05	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
24/05	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	3-0	4-0	1	4	W
16/05	Beijing Pengrui China FA Cup	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
10/05	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shaanxi Union vs Shenzhen Juniors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shaanxi Union win (47%). Probabilities: Shaanxi Union 47%, draw 27%, Shenzhen Juniors 26%.

How many goals are expected in Shaanxi Union vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Shaanxi Union 1.68 · Shenzhen Juniors 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Shaanxi Union vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.