Football · China Division 1 · 02/08, 13:00

Prediction: Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Team pages: Changchun Yatai · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Changchun Yatai1.49

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0.92

1X2

50% 27% 23%

Changchun Yatai Draw Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Yatai 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWLWLW

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDLWLLDD

Head-to-head

Changchun Yatai 0–1 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (1 last)

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1-0Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Yatai 1484 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1468

	Changchun Yatai	Draw	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Yatai	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	0.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	0.9 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.75▲	Bet365 1.75
X	3.70 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.51
2	4.75 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.52 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:26 +2’	1.57	3.70	4.75
11:39 +3’	1.75▲	3.50▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27	1.87	3.36	4.09
10:28	1.85▼	3.36	4.18▲
11:42	1.79▼	3.45▲	4.34▲
13:06 +1’	1.74▼	3.55▲	4.52▲
14:27	1.75▲	3.51▼	4.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Yatai 0–0–1 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	16	11	3	2	30	15	36
2	Yanbian Longding	16	7	7	2	23	13	28
3	Nantong Zhiyun	15	7	6	2	15	11	27
4	Guangxi Hengchen	15	7	5	3	26	17	26
5	Shenzhen Juniors	16	7	5	4	26	21	26
6	Ningbo Professional FC	16	8	3	5	21	18	24
7	Wuxi Wugo	15	6	5	4	28	17	23
8	Shaanxi Union	15	6	4	5	22	12	22
9	Changchun Yatai	15	7	1	7	23	28	18
10	Nanjing City	16	5	3	8	15	18	18
11	Dingnan Ganlian FC	16	3	9	4	25	29	18
12	Dalian K'un City	15	4	5	6	19	22	17
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	16	2	5	9	8	19	11
14	Foshan Nanshi	16	2	4	10	16	31	10
15	Suzhou Dongwu	16	2	5	9	11	22	8
16	Meizhou Hakka	16	5	2	9	16	31	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Yatai	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Nanjing City	2-1 W	2-1 W
Meizhou Hakka	3-1 W	0-1 L
Dalian K'un City	2-1 W	0-0 D
Yanbian Longding	2-2 D	0-0 D
Ningbo Professional FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Changchun Yatai

LWDLDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
30/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
16/05	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China FA Cup	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
09/05	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
03/05	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-3	1-3	2	0	L

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

DLDDLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
11/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
04/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
27/06	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
20/06	Shanghai Shenhua China FA Cup	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
13/06	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
30/05	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
24/05	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
17/05	Guizhou Xufengtang China FA Cup	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Yatai win (50%). Probabilities: Changchun Yatai 50%, draw 27%, Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Changchun Yatai 1.49 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 0.92), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.