Football · China Division 1 · 25/07, 13:30

Prediction: Foshan Nanshi vs Wuxi Wugo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Foshan Nanshi1.44

Wuxi Wugo1.49

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Foshan Nanshi Draw Wuxi Wugo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Foshan Nanshi 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DDLDDLLLLL

Wuxi Wugo 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDWDDDLW

Head-to-head

Foshan Nanshi 4–2 Wuxi Wugo (6 last)

Wuxi Wugo2-0Foshan Nanshi
Wuxi Wugo4-1Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi2-0Wuxi Wugo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Foshan Nanshi 1413 · Wuxi Wugo 1537

	Foshan Nanshi	Draw	Wuxi Wugo
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wuxi Wugo (rating 1413 vs 1537).
H2H favours Foshan Nanshi: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Foshan Nanshi	Wuxi Wugo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 3.73 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:37 +33’	2.63	3.10	2.45
04:06 +4’	3.50▲	3.20▲	1.95▼
06:05 +5’	2.63▼	3.10▼	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:09	3.73	3.02	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Foshan Nanshi 4–0–2 Wuxi Wugo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	2-0 HT 1-0	Foshan Nanshi
22/09/24 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	4-1 HT 1-0	Foshan Nanshi
04/05/24 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	2-0 HT 1-0	Wuxi Wugo
30/07/23 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	0-1 HT 0-1	Foshan Nanshi
22/04/23 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	1-0 HT 0-0	Wuxi Wugo
31/10/22 China Division 2	Wuxi Wugo	1-2	Foshan Nanshi

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	15	10	3	2	28	14	33
2	Shenzhen Juniors	15	7	5	3	26	18	26
3	Nantong Zhiyun	14	7	5	2	14	10	26
4	Guangxi Hengchen	14	7	4	3	22	13	25
5	Yanbian Longding	15	6	7	2	21	12	25
6	Ningbo Professional FC	15	8	3	4	20	16	24
7	Wuxi Wugo	14	5	5	4	26	17	20
8	Shaanxi Union	14	5	4	5	19	12	19
9	Nanjing City	15	5	3	7	14	16	18
10	Dingnan Ganlian FC	15	3	8	4	21	25	17
11	Dalian K'un City	14	4	4	6	19	22	16
12	Changchun Yatai	14	6	1	7	21	27	15
13	Foshan Nanshi	15	2	4	9	16	29	10
14	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	15	2	4	9	7	18	10
15	Meizhou Hakka	15	5	2	8	15	29	8
16	Suzhou Dongwu	15	2	4	9	11	22	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Foshan Nanshi	Wuxi Wugo
Nantong Zhiyun	1-2 L	0-1 L
Nanjing City	1-3 L	1-1 D
Yanbian Longding	0-2 L	1-1 D
Shaanxi Union	0-5 L	1-2 L
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 D	3-3 D
Suzhou Dongwu	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wuxi Wugo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Foshan Nanshi

DDLDDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
13/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
27/06	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
14/06	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-5	3	7	L
30/05	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-2	3-3	6	3	D
23/05	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/05	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China FA Cup	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
10/05	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/05	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	6	D

Wuxi Wugo

DLWDWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	2-0	5-1	2	1	W
04/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
28/06	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-2	3-3	5	7	D
20/06	Qingdao Hainiu China FA Cup	1-2	2-2	6	1	D
14/06	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
30/05	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
23/05	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	Guangzhou Dandelion China FA Cup	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
10/05	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
02/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Foshan Nanshi vs Wuxi Wugo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wuxi Wugo win (37%). Probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 35%, draw 28%, Wuxi Wugo 37%.

How many goals are expected in Foshan Nanshi vs Wuxi Wugo?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Foshan Nanshi 1.44 · Wuxi Wugo 1.49), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Wuxi Wugo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.