Football · China Division 1 · 15/08, 12:00

Prediction: Yanbian Longding vs Dalian K'un City

Team pages: Yanbian Longding · Dalian K'un City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Yanbian Longding1.32

Dalian K'un City1.31

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Yanbian Longding Draw Dalian K'un City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Yanbian Longding 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWDWDL

Dalian K'un City 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLDDL

Head-to-head

Yanbian Longding 2–1–0 Dalian K'un City (3 last)

Dalian K'un City1-2Yanbian Longding
Dalian K'un City0-0Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding3-2Dalian K'un City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yanbian Longding 1538 · Dalian K'un City 1453

	Yanbian Longding	Draw	Dalian K'un City
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanbian Longding (rating 1538 vs 1453).
H2H favours Yanbian Longding: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yanbian Longding	Dalian K'un City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	3.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
01:43 +1’	2.55	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yanbian Longding 2–1–0 Dalian K'un City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	1-2 HT 1-1	Yanbian Longding
09/08/25 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	0-0 HT 0-0	Yanbian Longding
22/04/25 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	3-2 HT 1-1	Dalian K'un City

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	18	12	4	2	33	16	40
2	Shenzhen Juniors	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
3	Nantong Zhiyun	17	8	7	2	21	13	31
4	Guangxi Hengchen	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
5	Yanbian Longding	18	7	8	3	24	15	29
6	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
7	Shaanxi Union	17	6	5	6	25	16	23
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Dingnan Ganlian FC	18	4	9	5	28	35	21
10	Nanjing City	18	5	5	8	17	20	20
11	Changchun Yatai	17	7	2	8	26	32	19
12	Dalian K'un City	17	4	6	7	22	26	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	18	3	6	9	12	22	15
14	Suzhou Dongwu	18	4	5	9	14	23	14
15	Meizhou Hakka	18	6	2	10	19	34	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	18	2	5	11	19	35	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yanbian Longding	Dalian K'un City
Shenzhen Juniors	0-1 L	5-4 W
Nanjing City	1-1 D	2-0 W
Meizhou Hakka	2-1 W	0-2 L
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Suzhou Dongwu	3-1 W	0-0 D
Dingnan Ganlian FC	3-0 W	1-2 L
Changchun Yatai	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Yanbian Longding (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yanbian Longding

WDLWWWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
11/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
04/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
27/06	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
14/06	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
30/05	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
24/05	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	2-0	4-3	1	5	W

Dalian K'un City

LDLWLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	11	1	L
01/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
26/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
18/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
11/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
05/07	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-0	1-3	3	0	L
27/06	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	3-3	5-4	5	3	W
13/06	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-2	1-2	7	0	L
30/05	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
23/05	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yanbian Longding vs Dalian K'un City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yanbian Longding win (36%). Probabilities: Yanbian Longding 36%, draw 29%, Dalian K'un City 35%.

How many goals are expected in Yanbian Longding vs Dalian K'un City?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Yanbian Longding 1.32 · Dalian K'un City 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Yanbian Longding vs Dalian K'un City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.