Football · China Division 1 · 23/08, 13:00

Prediction: Changchun Yatai vs Foshan Nanshi

Team pages: Changchun Yatai · Foshan Nanshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Changchun Yatai2.08

Foshan Nanshi1.33

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Changchun Yatai Draw Foshan Nanshi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Yatai 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLWDLL

Foshan Nanshi 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLDLL

Head-to-head

Changchun Yatai 1–0 Foshan Nanshi (1 last)

Foshan Nanshi1-3Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Yatai 1472 · Foshan Nanshi 1384

	Changchun Yatai	Draw	Foshan Nanshi
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	52%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Changchun Yatai (rating 1472 vs 1384).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Yatai	Foshan Nanshi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	0.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49
2	4.20 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.76 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +4’	1.73	3.40	4.20
08:06 +5’	1.65▼	3.60▲	4.50▲
09:58 +7’	1.70▲	3.60	4.20▼
11:00 +8’	1.85▲	3.40▼	3.60▼
12:19 +3’	1.90▲	3.40	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:59 +9’	1.77	3.60	4.23
19:27 +13’	1.75▼	3.63▲	4.35▲
02:07 +8’	1.75	3.62▼	4.35
08:10	1.72▼	3.70▲	4.43▲
09:07	1.71▼	3.71▲	4.43
10:03 +1’	1.73▲	3.70▼	4.37▼
11:06 +2’	1.89▲	3.47▼	3.83▼
12:14 +7’	1.95▲	3.49▲	3.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Yatai 1–0–0 Foshan Nanshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	1-3 HT 0-1	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	20	14	4	2	41	17	46
2	Nantong Zhiyun	19	9	8	2	25	14	35
3	Yanbian Longding	20	9	8	3	30	18	35
4	Guangxi Hengchen	19	9	6	4	34	24	33
5	Shenzhen Juniors	19	9	6	4	28	21	33
6	Shaanxi Union	19	7	5	7	28	21	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	19	8	4	7	25	25	25
8	Wuxi Wugo	18	6	5	7	29	23	23
9	Dingnan Ganlian FC	20	4	10	6	30	38	22
10	Dalian K'un City	19	5	6	8	25	30	21
11	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	20	5	6	9	16	24	21
12	Nanjing City	19	5	6	8	18	21	21
13	Changchun Yatai	18	7	2	9	27	34	19
14	Suzhou Dongwu	20	4	7	9	17	26	16
15	Meizhou Hakka	20	6	2	12	20	40	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	19	2	5	12	20	37	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Yatai	Foshan Nanshi
Shaanxi Union	1-2 L	0-5 L
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Nanjing City	2-1 W	1-3 L
Wuxi Wugo	1-5 L	0-2 L
Meizhou Hakka	3-1 W	2-3 L
Guangxi Hengchen	1-2 L	3-3 D
Yanbian Longding	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changchun Yatai

LDWLWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
30/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-3	0-4	7	4	L

Foshan Nanshi

DLLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
08/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
01/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
17/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
13/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
27/06	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
14/06	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-5	3	7	L
30/05	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-2	3-3	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Yatai vs Foshan Nanshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Yatai win (53%). Probabilities: Changchun Yatai 53%, draw 25%, Foshan Nanshi 22%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Yatai vs Foshan Nanshi?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Changchun Yatai 2.08 · Foshan Nanshi 1.33), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Foshan Nanshi?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.