Football · China Division 1 · 22/08, 13:30

Prediction: Guangxi Hengchen vs Suzhou Dongwu

Team pages: Guangxi Hengchen · Suzhou Dongwu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Guangxi Hengchen1.86

Suzhou Dongwu0.87

1X2

60% 24% 16%

Guangxi Hengchen Draw Suzhou Dongwu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guangxi Hengchen 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWDWLW

Suzhou Dongwu 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDDWWD

Head-to-head

Guangxi Hengchen 0–1 Suzhou Dongwu (1 last)

Suzhou Dongwu1-0Guangxi Hengchen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangxi Hengchen 1528 · Suzhou Dongwu 1476

	Guangxi Hengchen	Draw	Suzhou Dongwu
Our model	60%	24%	16%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangxi Hengchen (rating 1528 vs 1476).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangxi Hengchen	Suzhou Dongwu
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 6.9	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.55
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.86
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.71 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +31’	1.50	3.75	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:41	1.55	3.86	5.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangxi Hengchen 0–0–1 Suzhou Dongwu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 China Division 1	Suzhou Dongwu	1-0 HT 1-0	Guangxi Hengchen

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	19	13	4	2	36	16	43
2	Shenzhen Juniors	19	9	6	4	28	21	33
3	Nantong Zhiyun	18	8	8	2	21	13	32
4	Guangxi Hengchen	18	9	5	4	31	21	32
5	Yanbian Longding	19	8	8	3	27	16	32
6	Shaanxi Union	18	7	5	6	27	17	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	18	8	4	6	23	22	25
8	Wuxi Wugo	17	6	5	6	28	21	23
9	Dingnan Ganlian FC	19	4	10	5	29	36	22
10	Nanjing City	19	5	6	8	18	21	21
11	Changchun Yatai	18	7	2	9	27	34	19
12	Dalian K'un City	18	4	6	8	23	29	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	19	4	6	9	14	23	18
14	Suzhou Dongwu	19	4	6	9	14	23	15
15	Meizhou Hakka	19	6	2	11	19	35	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	19	2	5	12	20	37	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangxi Hengchen	Suzhou Dongwu
Meizhou Hakka	1-0 W	1-0 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-2 L	2-2 D
Ningbo Professional FC	4-2 W	1-2 L
Dalian K'un City	3-1 W	0-0 D
Changchun Yatai	2-1 W	2-1 W
Shenzhen Juniors	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guangxi Hengchen (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guangxi Hengchen

DDLWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	2	5	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D
18/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	3-0	13	3	W
05/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	3-1	7	0	W
27/06	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
20/06	Shandong Taishan China FA Cup	0-2	0-5	6	0	L
14/06	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
30/05	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-1	3-3	4	3	D

Suzhou Dongwu

DLLDLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
08/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
02/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
26/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
17/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
11/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
04/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/06	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
21/06	Yunnan Yukun China FA Cup	2-3	2-4	4	2	L
13/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	0	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangxi Hengchen vs Suzhou Dongwu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangxi Hengchen win (60%). Probabilities: Guangxi Hengchen 60%, draw 24%, Suzhou Dongwu 16%.

How many goals are expected in Guangxi Hengchen vs Suzhou Dongwu?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Guangxi Hengchen 1.86 · Suzhou Dongwu 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangxi Hengchen vs Suzhou Dongwu?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.