Football · China Division 1 · 22/08, 13:30

Prediction: Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Team pages: Dingnan Ganlian FC · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Dingnan Ganlian FC1.76

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1.27

1X2

47% 26% 26%

Dingnan Ganlian FC Draw Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dingnan Ganlian FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLDLWD

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDDDWW

Head-to-head

Dingnan Ganlian FC 1–2–3 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (6 last)

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1-2Dingnan Ganlian FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1-1Dingnan Ganlian FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC2-2Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC0-1Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1-0Dingnan Ganlian FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1-0Dingnan Ganlian FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1474 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1488

	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Draw	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Our model	48%	26%	27%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.6	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.29
X	3.30 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.20 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:53 +15’	1.91	3.30	3.50
04:53 +4’	2.15▲	3.20▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:06 +1’	2.29	3.04	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1–2–3 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Dingnan Ganlian FC
13/07/25 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Dingnan Ganlian FC
16/03/25 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
07/09/24 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
20/04/24 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Dingnan Ganlian FC
18/10/23 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Dingnan Ganlian FC

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	19	13	4	2	36	16	43
2	Shenzhen Juniors	19	9	6	4	28	21	33
3	Nantong Zhiyun	18	8	8	2	21	13	32
4	Guangxi Hengchen	18	9	5	4	31	21	32
5	Yanbian Longding	19	8	8	3	27	16	32
6	Shaanxi Union	18	7	5	6	27	17	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	18	8	4	6	23	22	25
8	Wuxi Wugo	17	6	5	6	28	21	23
9	Dingnan Ganlian FC	19	4	10	5	29	36	22
10	Nanjing City	19	5	6	8	18	21	21
11	Changchun Yatai	18	7	2	9	27	34	19
12	Dalian K'un City	18	4	6	8	23	29	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	19	4	6	9	14	23	18
14	Suzhou Dongwu	19	4	6	9	14	23	15
15	Meizhou Hakka	19	6	2	11	19	35	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	19	2	5	12	20	37	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Nanjing City	1-1 D	2-1 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-5 L	1-1 D
Ningbo Professional FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Yanbian Longding	0-3 L	0-0 D
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dingnan Ganlian FC

DLDLDLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	5	1	W
01/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-3	1-5	5	0	L
26/07	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-2	4-4	0	4	D
18/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	0	D
04/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
28/06	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	2-2	3-3	10	7	D
13/06	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/05	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-2	7	3	D

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

DLWLLDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
08/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
25/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
11/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
04/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
27/06	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
20/06	Shanghai Shenhua China FA Cup	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
13/06	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dingnan Ganlian FC win (47%). Probabilities: Dingnan Ganlian FC 47%, draw 26%, Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Dingnan Ganlian FC 1.76 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1.27), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.