Football · China Division 1 · 29/08, 13:30

Prediction: Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors

Team pages: Foshan Nanshi · Shenzhen Juniors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Foshan Nanshi1.1

Shenzhen Juniors1.74

1X2

23% 26% 51%

Foshan Nanshi Draw Shenzhen Juniors

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Foshan Nanshi 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLLL

Shenzhen Juniors 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLWWDW

Head-to-head

Foshan Nanshi 2–1 Shenzhen Juniors (3 last)

Shenzhen Juniors0-3Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi2-1Shenzhen Juniors
Shenzhen Juniors2-1Foshan Nanshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Foshan Nanshi 1397 · Shenzhen Juniors 1489

	Foshan Nanshi	Draw	Shenzhen Juniors
Our model	23%	26%	51%
Market	23%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shenzhen Juniors (rating 1397 vs 1489).
H2H favours Foshan Nanshi: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Foshan Nanshi	Shenzhen Juniors
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.7	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	3.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.14 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.55
2	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:54 +21’	4.00	3.50	1.73
05:22 +13’	3.90▼	3.50	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +2’	4.14	3.55	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Foshan Nanshi 2–0–1 Shenzhen Juniors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	0-3 HT 0-1	Foshan Nanshi
12/07/25 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	2-1 HT 2-1	Shenzhen Juniors
16/03/25 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	2-1 HT 1-1	Foshan Nanshi

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	20	14	4	2	41	17	46
2	Shenzhen Juniors	20	10	6	4	31	22	36
3	Nantong Zhiyun	19	9	8	2	25	14	35
4	Yanbian Longding	20	9	8	3	30	18	35
5	Guangxi Hengchen	19	9	6	4	34	24	33
6	Shaanxi Union	19	7	5	7	28	21	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	19	8	4	7	25	25	25
8	Wuxi Wugo	18	6	5	7	29	23	23
9	Changchun Yatai	19	8	2	9	33	34	22
10	Dingnan Jiangxi United	20	4	10	6	30	38	22
11	Dalian K'un City	19	5	6	8	25	30	21
12	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	20	5	6	9	16	24	21
13	Nanjing City	20	5	6	9	19	24	21
14	Suzhou Dongwu	20	4	7	9	17	26	16
15	Meizhou Hakka	20	6	2	12	20	40	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	20	2	5	13	20	43	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Foshan Nanshi	Shenzhen Juniors
Wuxi Wugo	0-2 L	1-0 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-2 L	0-0 D
Ningbo Professional FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Nanjing City	1-3 L	3-1 W
Yanbian Longding	0-2 L	1-0 W
Shaanxi Union	0-5 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen Juniors (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Foshan Nanshi

LLLLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-5	0-6	4	0	L
16/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
08/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
01/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
17/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
13/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
27/06	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
14/06	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-5	3	7	L

Shenzhen Juniors

DLDDDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
16/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
09/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
02/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
25/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
17/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	3-3	9	0	D
04/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
27/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	3-3	4-5	6	3	L
14/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shenzhen Juniors win (51%). Probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 23%, draw 26%, Shenzhen Juniors 51%.

How many goals are expected in Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Foshan Nanshi 1.1 · Shenzhen Juniors 1.74), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.