Football · China Division 1 · 12/09, 13:30

Prediction: Guangxi Hengchen vs Yanbian Longding

Team pages: Guangxi Hengchen · Yanbian Longding

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Guangxi Hengchen1.88

Yanbian Longding1.03

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Guangxi Hengchen Draw Yanbian Longding

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangxi Hengchen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLWDWL

Yanbian Longding 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLWWLL

Head-to-head

Guangxi Hengchen 0–1–0 Yanbian Longding (1 last)

Yanbian Longding1-1Guangxi Hengchen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangxi Hengchen 1547 · Yanbian Longding 1509

	Guangxi Hengchen	Draw	Yanbian Longding
Our model	56%	24%	19%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangxi Hengchen	Yanbian Longding
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 6.7	1.5 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.3	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.79 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.66
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +4’	1.61	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +6’	1.72	3.65	4.09
05:45 +28’	1.79▲	3.66▲	4.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangxi Hengchen 0–1–0 Yanbian Longding

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	1-1 HT 1-0	Guangxi Hengchen

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	22	15	5	2	45	18	50
2	Shenzhen Juniors	22	12	6	4	38	24	42
3	Guangxi Hengchen	21	10	6	5	36	25	36
4	Nantong Zhiyun	21	9	9	3	28	18	36
5	Yanbian Longding	22	9	8	5	31	23	35
6	Shaanxi Union	21	9	5	7	33	23	32
7	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	22	7	6	9	19	24	27
8	Wuxi Wugo	20	7	5	8	31	25	26
9	Ningbo Professional FC	21	8	5	8	26	28	26
10	Changchun Yatai	21	9	2	10	35	37	25
11	Dalian K'un City	21	6	7	8	28	32	25
12	Suzhou Dongwu	22	6	7	9	23	29	22
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	22	4	10	8	34	44	22
14	Nanjing City	22	5	6	11	19	28	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	22	6	3	13	22	46	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	22	2	6	14	21	45	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangxi Hengchen	Yanbian Longding
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Nanjing City	2-0 W	1-1 D
Suzhou Dongwu	3-3 D	3-1 W
Meizhou Hakka	1-0 W	2-1 W
Ningbo Professional FC	4-2 W	3-2 W
Dingnan Ganlian FC	4-4 D	3-0 W
Shaanxi Union	3-0 W	1-3 L
Dalian K'un City	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangxi Hengchen

WWWDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	2	5	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D
18/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	3-0	13	3	W
05/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	3-1	7	0	W
27/06	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	3	W

Yanbian Longding

WWDWDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
29/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	1	5	W
15/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	0	5	W
09/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
11/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
04/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-0	3-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangxi Hengchen vs Yanbian Longding?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangxi Hengchen win (56%). Probabilities: Guangxi Hengchen 56%, draw 25%, Yanbian Longding 19%.

How many goals are expected in Guangxi Hengchen vs Yanbian Longding?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Guangxi Hengchen 1.88 · Yanbian Longding 1.03), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangxi Hengchen vs Yanbian Longding?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.