Football · China Division 1 · 18/09, 13:30

Prediction: Nantong Zhiyun vs Guangxi Hengchen

Team pages: Nantong Zhiyun · Guangxi Hengchen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Nantong Zhiyun1.7

Guangxi Hengchen1.18

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Nantong Zhiyun Draw Guangxi Hengchen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nantong Zhiyun 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDDWLDW

Guangxi Hengchen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWDWLW

Head-to-head

Nantong Zhiyun 0–1–0 Guangxi Hengchen (1 last)

Guangxi Hengchen0-0Nantong Zhiyun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nantong Zhiyun 1544 · Guangxi Hengchen 1543

	Nantong Zhiyun	Draw	Guangxi Hengchen
Our model	48%	26%	25%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nantong Zhiyun	Guangxi Hengchen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	4.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.99 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +9’	1.90	3.25	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:52 +20’	1.99	3.30	3.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nantong Zhiyun 0–1–0 Guangxi Hengchen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 China Division 1	Guangxi Hengchen	0-0 HT 0-0	Nantong Zhiyun

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	23	15	6	2	46	19	51
2	Shenzhen Juniors	22	12	6	4	38	24	42
3	Guangxi Hengchen	22	11	6	5	38	26	39
4	Nantong Zhiyun	21	9	9	3	28	18	36
5	Yanbian Longding	23	9	8	6	32	25	35
6	Shaanxi Union	22	9	5	8	33	24	32
7	Ningbo Professional FC	22	9	5	8	27	28	29
8	Changchun Yatai	22	10	2	10	36	37	28
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	22	7	6	9	19	24	27
10	Dalian K'un City	22	6	8	8	29	33	26
11	Wuxi Wugo	20	7	5	8	31	25	26
12	Suzhou Dongwu	23	7	7	9	26	31	25
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	23	4	10	9	34	45	22
14	Nanjing City	22	5	6	11	19	28	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	22	6	3	13	22	46	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	23	2	6	15	23	48	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nantong Zhiyun	Guangxi Hengchen
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-1 D	0-2 L
Dalian K'un City	2-3 L	3-1 W
Shaanxi Union	4-1 W	3-0 W
Suzhou Dongwu	0-0 D	3-3 D
Nanjing City	1-1 D	2-0 W
Dingnan Ganlian FC	5-1 W	4-4 D
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nantong Zhiyun (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nantong Zhiyun

DWDWDDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
22/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	3-1	4-1	7	5	W
16/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
08/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
01/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	3-0	5-1	9	0	W
25/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
17/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-1	2-1	10	2	W
04/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Guangxi Hengchen

WWDWLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	2	5	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D
18/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	3-0	13	3	W
05/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	3-1	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nantong Zhiyun vs Guangxi Hengchen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nantong Zhiyun win (48%). Probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 48%, draw 27%, Guangxi Hengchen 25%.

How many goals are expected in Nantong Zhiyun vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Nantong Zhiyun 1.7 · Guangxi Hengchen 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.