Football · China Division 1 · 18/09, 12:00

Prediction: Yanbian Longding vs Guangdong GZ-Power

Team pages: Yanbian Longding · Guangdong GZ-Power

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Yanbian Longding1.11

Guangdong GZ-Power1.86

1X2

21% 25% 54%

Yanbian Longding Draw Guangdong GZ-Power

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Yanbian Longding 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWWLLL

Guangdong GZ-Power 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWDD

Head-to-head

Yanbian Longding 2–1 Guangdong GZ-Power (3 last)

Guangdong GZ-Power3-4Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding2-0Guangdong GZ-Power
Guangdong GZ-Power4-0Yanbian Longding

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yanbian Longding 1500 · Guangdong GZ-Power 1581

	Yanbian Longding	Draw	Guangdong GZ-Power
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	21%	25%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangdong GZ-Power (rating 1500 vs 1581).
H2H favours Yanbian Longding: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yanbian Longding	Guangdong GZ-Power
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	2.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.60

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.84 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +4’	4.20	3.60	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +16’	3.67	3.45	1.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Yanbian Longding 2–0–1 Guangdong GZ-Power

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 China Division 1	Guangdong GZ-Power	3-4 HT 0-2	Yanbian Longding
12/07/25 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	2-0 HT 0-0	Guangdong GZ-Power
15/03/25 China Division 1	Guangdong GZ-Power	4-0 HT 2-0	Yanbian Longding

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	23	15	6	2	46	19	51
2	Shenzhen Juniors	22	12	6	4	38	24	42
3	Guangxi Hengchen	22	11	6	5	38	26	39
4	Nantong Zhiyun	21	9	9	3	28	18	36
5	Yanbian Longding	23	9	8	6	32	25	35
6	Shaanxi Union	22	9	5	8	33	24	32
7	Ningbo Professional FC	22	9	5	8	27	28	29
8	Changchun Yatai	22	10	2	10	36	37	28
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	22	7	6	9	19	24	27
10	Dalian K'un City	22	6	8	8	29	33	26
11	Wuxi Wugo	20	7	5	8	31	25	26
12	Suzhou Dongwu	23	7	7	9	26	31	25
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	23	4	10	9	34	45	22
14	Nanjing City	22	5	6	11	19	28	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	22	6	3	13	22	46	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	23	2	6	15	23	48	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yanbian Longding	Guangdong GZ-Power
Guangxi Hengchen	1-2 L	2-0 W
Wuxi Wugo	0-2 L	3-0 W
Ningbo Professional FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Dalian K'un City	3-1 W	1-1 D
Nanjing City	1-1 D	1-0 W
Meizhou Hakka	2-1 W	5-1 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Guangdong GZ-Power (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yanbian Longding

WDWDLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
29/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	1	5	W
15/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	0	5	W
09/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
11/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	3-1	4	4	W

Guangdong GZ-Power

WWWDWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
05/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
30/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	2-0	3-0	7	6	W
22/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-0	5-1	3	2	W
15/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	3-0	3-0	2	1	W
09/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
01/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
18/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
11/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yanbian Longding vs Guangdong GZ-Power?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guangdong GZ-Power win (54%). Probabilities: Yanbian Longding 21%, draw 25%, Guangdong GZ-Power 54%.

How many goals are expected in Yanbian Longding vs Guangdong GZ-Power?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Yanbian Longding 1.11 · Guangdong GZ-Power 1.86), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Yanbian Longding vs Guangdong GZ-Power?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.