Football · China Division 1 · 07/10, 13:30

Prediction: Foshan Nanshi vs Guangxi Hengchen

Team pages: Foshan Nanshi · Guangxi Hengchen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Foshan Nanshi1.13

Guangxi Hengchen2.16

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Foshan Nanshi Draw Guangxi Hengchen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Foshan Nanshi 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLDLD

Guangxi Hengchen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Foshan Nanshi 0–1–0 Guangxi Hengchen (1 last)

Guangxi Hengchen3-3Foshan Nanshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Foshan Nanshi 1418 · Guangxi Hengchen 1555

	Foshan Nanshi	Draw	Guangxi Hengchen
Our model	18%	22%	60%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangxi Hengchen (rating 1418 vs 1555).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Foshan Nanshi	Guangxi Hengchen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	3.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.90

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.33 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.11
2	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.54

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:56 +11’	5.00	3.90	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +19’	5.33	4.11	1.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Foshan Nanshi 0–1–0 Guangxi Hengchen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 China Division 1	Guangxi Hengchen	3-3 HT 2-1	Foshan Nanshi

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	24	16	6	2	48	20	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	40	26	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	12	8	4	39	25	44
4	Nantong Zhiyun	24	11	9	4	33	20	42
5	Shaanxi Union	24	10	6	8	38	26	36
6	Yanbian Longding	24	9	8	7	33	27	35
7	Wuxi Wugo	24	9	5	10	36	29	32
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	24	8	7	9	22	25	31
9	Changchun Yatai	24	10	3	11	37	40	29
10	Ningbo Professional FC	24	9	5	10	27	30	29
11	Dalian K'un City	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	24	7	8	9	28	33	26
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	24	4	11	9	35	46	23
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	20	33	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	24	7	3	14	25	50	15
16	Foshan Nanshi	24	2	7	15	24	49	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Foshan Nanshi	Guangxi Hengchen
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 D	4-4 D
Suzhou Dongwu	2-3 L	3-3 D
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Meizhou Hakka	2-3 L	1-0 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-1 D	0-2 L
Wuxi Wugo	0-2 L	1-0 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guangxi Hengchen (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Foshan Nanshi

LLDLLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
05/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-5	0-6	4	0	L
16/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
08/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
01/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
17/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L

Guangxi Hengchen

DWLWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
18/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	3	4	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Foshan Nanshi vs Guangxi Hengchen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guangxi Hengchen win (60%). Probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 18%, draw 22%, Guangxi Hengchen 60%.

How many goals are expected in Foshan Nanshi vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Foshan Nanshi 1.13 · Guangxi Hengchen 2.16), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.