Football · China Division 1 · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Shenzhen Juniors vs Dalian K'un City

Team pages: Shenzhen Juniors · Dalian K'un City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Shenzhen Juniors2.02

Dalian K'un City1.15

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Shenzhen Juniors Draw Dalian K'un City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Shenzhen Juniors 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDDLD

Dalian K'un City 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDWLLD

Head-to-head

Shenzhen Juniors 1–4 Dalian K'un City (5 last)

Dalian K'un City5-4Shenzhen Juniors
Shenzhen Juniors1-3Dalian K'un City
Dalian K'un City2-1Shenzhen Juniors
Dalian K'un City1-0Shenzhen Juniors
Shenzhen Juniors1-0Dalian K'un City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shenzhen Juniors 1532 · Dalian K'un City 1495

	Shenzhen Juniors	Draw	Dalian K'un City
Our model	56%	23%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dalian K'un City: 4-0-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shenzhen Juniors	Dalian K'un City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.1	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.90
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +46’	1.60	3.70	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +7’	1.53	3.92	5.90
12:23 +3’	1.54▲	3.90▼	5.82▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen Juniors 1–0–4 Dalian K'un City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	5-4 HT 3-3	Shenzhen Juniors
27/09/25 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	1-3 HT 0-2	Dalian K'un City
16/05/25 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	2-1 HT 1-1	Shenzhen Juniors
06/10/24 China Division 2	Dalian K'un City	1-0 HT 0-0	Shenzhen Juniors
31/08/24 China Division 2	Shenzhen Juniors	1-0 HT 0-0	Dalian K'un City

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	26	18	6	2	55	22	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	13	9	4	35	20	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	26	13	7	6	41	28	46
4	Shenzhen Juniors	26	12	9	5	41	30	45
5	Shaanxi Union	26	12	6	8	47	28	42
6	Wuxi Wugo	26	10	6	10	41	31	36
7	Yanbian Longding	26	9	9	8	34	29	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	26	9	8	9	23	25	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	10	5	11	39	42	31
10	Ningbo Professional FC	26	9	6	11	27	31	30
11	Dalian K'un City	26	7	9	10	31	38	30
12	Suzhou Dongwu	26	7	10	9	30	35	28
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	26	4	12	10	36	49	24
14	Nanjing City	26	5	7	14	21	37	22
15	Meizhou Hakka	26	7	4	15	25	53	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	26	3	7	16	26	54	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shenzhen Juniors	Dalian K'un City
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-4 L	1-1 D
Changchun Yatai	1-1 D	1-1 D
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Foshan Nanshi	2-1 W	0-0 D
Ningbo Professional FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Yanbian Longding	1-0 W	1-3 L
Wuxi Wugo	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen Juniors (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shenzhen Juniors

WWDWWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
07/10	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-4	4	4	L
19/09	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	1-1	11	6	D
13/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
06/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	5-1	8	2	W
29/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
23/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
16/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
09/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
02/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	3	W

Dalian K'un City

LLWWDDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
06/10	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/09	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
18/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
30/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	2-0	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-3	10	5	L
08/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	11	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shenzhen Juniors vs Dalian K'un City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shenzhen Juniors win (56%). Probabilities: Shenzhen Juniors 56%, draw 24%, Dalian K'un City 20%.

How many goals are expected in Shenzhen Juniors vs Dalian K'un City?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Shenzhen Juniors 2.02 · Dalian K'un City 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Shenzhen Juniors vs Dalian K'un City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.