Football · China Division 1 · 17/10, 09:00
Prediction: Yanbian Longding vs Foshan Nanshi
Team pages: Yanbian Longding · Foshan Nanshi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
Yanbian Longding2.02
Foshan Nanshi1.15
1X2
Yanbian Longding
Draw
Foshan Nanshi
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Yanbian Longding
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Foshan Nanshi
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Yanbian Longding
2–2–2
Foshan Nanshi
(6 last)
- Foshan Nanshi0-2Yanbian Longding
- Yanbian Longding4-1Foshan Nanshi
- Foshan Nanshi2-2Yanbian Longding
- Yanbian Longding0-1Foshan Nanshi
- Foshan Nanshi2-0Yanbian Longding
- Foshan Nanshi1-1Yanbian Longding
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yanbian Longding 1469 · Foshan Nanshi 1423
| Yanbian Longding | Draw | Foshan Nanshi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanbian Longding (rating 1469 vs 1423).
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Yanbian Longding | Foshan Nanshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yanbian Longding 2–2–2 Foshan Nanshi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 China Division 1 | Foshan Nanshi | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Yanbian Longding |
| 18/10/25 China Division 1 | Yanbian Longding | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Foshan Nanshi |
| 14/06/25 China Division 1 | Foshan Nanshi | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Yanbian Longding |
| 03/11/24 China Division 1 | Yanbian Longding | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Foshan Nanshi |
| 30/06/24 China Division 1 | Foshan Nanshi | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Yanbian Longding |
| 13/09/23 China Division 1 | Foshan Nanshi | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Yanbian Longding |
Standings · China Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangdong GZ-Power | 26 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 55 | 22 | 60 |
| 2 | Nantong Zhiyun | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | Guangxi Hengchen | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 46 |
| 4 | Shenzhen Juniors | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 45 |
| 5 | Shaanxi Union | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 28 | 42 |
| 6 | Wuxi Wugo | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 31 | 36 |
| 7 | Yanbian Longding | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 36 |
| 8 | Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 25 | 35 |
| 9 | Changchun Yatai | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 42 | 31 |
| 10 | Ningbo Professional FC | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 31 | 30 |
| 11 | Dalian K'un City | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 30 |
| 12 | Suzhou Dongwu | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 30 | 35 | 28 |
| 13 | Dingnan Ganlian FC | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 36 | 49 | 24 |
| 14 | Nanjing City | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 37 | 22 |
| 15 | Meizhou Hakka | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 53 | 16 |
| 16 | Foshan Nanshi | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 54 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Yanbian Longding | Foshan Nanshi |
|---|---|---|
| Changchun Yatai | 1-1 D | 0-6 L |
| Guangdong GZ-Power | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Guangxi Hengchen | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Shaanxi Union | 1-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Dalian K'un City | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Shenzhen Juniors | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Yanbian Longding (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yanbian Longding
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/10 | Changchun Yatai China Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 18/09 | Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Wuxi Wugo China Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Shaanxi Union China Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Dalian K'un City China Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Nanjing City China Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
Foshan Nanshi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Shaanxi Union China Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 07/10 | Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Dalian K'un City China Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Changchun Yatai China Division 1 |
0-5 | 0-6 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Meizhou Hakka China Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yanbian Longding vs Foshan Nanshi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Yanbian Longding win (56%). Probabilities: Yanbian Longding 56%, draw 24%, Foshan Nanshi 20%.
How many goals are expected in Yanbian Longding vs Foshan Nanshi?
The model expects 3.16 goals (Yanbian Longding 2.02 · Foshan Nanshi 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Yanbian Longding vs Foshan Nanshi?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.