Football · China Division 1 · 17/10, 13:30

Prediction: Guangxi Hengchen vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Guangxi Hengchen · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Guangxi Hengchen1.86

Changchun Yatai0.88

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Guangxi Hengchen Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangxi Hengchen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWWLD

Changchun Yatai 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWDLDD

Head-to-head

Guangxi Hengchen 1–0 Changchun Yatai (1 last)

Changchun Yatai1-2Guangxi Hengchen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangxi Hengchen 1546 · Changchun Yatai 1483

	Guangxi Hengchen	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	60%	24%	16%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangxi Hengchen (rating 1546 vs 1483).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangxi Hengchen	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.69
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 7.44 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:53 +19’	1.48	4.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +8’	1.41	4.30	6.87
12:18 +9’	1.50▲	3.99▼	5.34▼
13:31 +9’	1.37▼	4.69▲	7.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangxi Hengchen 1–0–0 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	1-2 HT 0-0	Guangxi Hengchen

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	26	18	6	2	55	22	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	13	9	4	35	20	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	26	13	7	6	41	28	46
4	Shenzhen Juniors	26	12	9	5	41	30	45
5	Shaanxi Union	26	12	6	8	47	28	42
6	Wuxi Wugo	26	10	6	10	41	31	36
7	Yanbian Longding	26	9	9	8	34	29	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	26	9	8	9	23	25	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	10	5	11	39	42	31
10	Ningbo Professional FC	26	9	6	11	27	31	30
11	Dalian K'un City	26	7	9	10	31	38	30
12	Suzhou Dongwu	26	7	10	9	30	35	28
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	26	4	12	10	36	49	24
14	Nanjing City	26	5	7	14	21	37	22
15	Meizhou Hakka	26	7	4	15	25	53	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	26	3	7	16	26	54	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangxi Hengchen	Changchun Yatai
Shenzhen Juniors	1-1 D	1-1 D
Foshan Nanshi	0-1 L	6-0 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-0 W	0-2 L
Yanbian Longding	2-1 W	1-1 D
Suzhou Dongwu	3-3 D	1-2 L
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Guangxi Hengchen (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangxi Hengchen

LWDWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
07/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
25/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
18/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	3	5	L

Changchun Yatai

LLWLWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangxi Hengchen vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangxi Hengchen win (60%). Probabilities: Guangxi Hengchen 60%, draw 23%, Changchun Yatai 17%.

How many goals are expected in Guangxi Hengchen vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Guangxi Hengchen 1.86 · Changchun Yatai 0.88), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangxi Hengchen vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.