Football · China Division 1 · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Wuxi Wugo vs Dingnan Ganlian FC

Team pages: Wuxi Wugo · Dingnan Ganlian FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Wuxi Wugo1.92

Dingnan Ganlian FC1.25

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Wuxi Wugo Draw Dingnan Ganlian FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wuxi Wugo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLWDW

Dingnan Ganlian FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLDDL

Head-to-head

Wuxi Wugo 2–1–2 Dingnan Ganlian FC (5 last)

Dingnan Ganlian FC3-3Wuxi Wugo
Dingnan Ganlian FC0-1Wuxi Wugo
Wuxi Wugo0-1Dingnan Ganlian FC
Wuxi Wugo2-1Dingnan Ganlian FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC6-2Wuxi Wugo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wuxi Wugo 1492 · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1438

	Wuxi Wugo	Draw	Dingnan Ganlian FC
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wuxi Wugo (rating 1492 vs 1438).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wuxi Wugo	Dingnan Ganlian FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 2.14 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.69
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:04 +12’	1.75	3.50	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:53 +32’	2.05	3.55	3.25
13:19 +19’	2.14▲	3.69▲	2.94▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wuxi Wugo 2–1–2 Dingnan Ganlian FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	3-3 HT 2-2	Wuxi Wugo
13/10/24 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Wuxi Wugo
01/06/24 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	0-1 HT 0-0	Dingnan Ganlian FC
22/10/23 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	2-1 HT 1-1	Dingnan Ganlian FC
09/07/23 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	6-2 HT 2-0	Wuxi Wugo

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	26	18	6	2	55	22	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	13	9	4	35	20	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	26	13	7	6	41	28	46
4	Shenzhen Juniors	26	12	9	5	41	30	45
5	Shaanxi Union	26	12	6	8	47	28	42
6	Wuxi Wugo	26	10	6	10	41	31	36
7	Yanbian Longding	26	9	9	8	34	29	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	26	9	8	9	23	25	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	10	5	11	39	42	31
10	Ningbo Professional FC	26	9	6	11	27	31	30
11	Dalian K'un City	26	7	9	10	31	38	30
12	Suzhou Dongwu	26	7	10	9	30	35	28
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	26	4	12	10	36	49	24
14	Nanjing City	26	5	7	14	21	37	22
15	Meizhou Hakka	26	7	4	15	25	53	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	26	3	7	16	26	54	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wuxi Wugo	Dingnan Ganlian FC
Meizhou Hakka	3-0 W	0-0 D
Suzhou Dongwu	2-2 D	3-4 L
Nanjing City	3-0 W	1-1 D
Nantong Zhiyun	1-3 L	1-5 L
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Dalian K'un City	1-2 L	2-1 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Wuxi Wugo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wuxi Wugo

LLLWLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	3-0	1	0	W
06/10	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
29/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
19/09	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
13/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
05/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
29/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
22/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
15/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-3	0-3	3	1	L

Dingnan Ganlian FC

LWDLLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
06/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
19/09	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
05/09	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
29/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-1	3-4	3	1	L
22/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
16/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	5	1	W
01/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-3	1-5	5	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wuxi Wugo vs Dingnan Ganlian FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wuxi Wugo win (52%). Probabilities: Wuxi Wugo 52%, draw 25%, Dingnan Ganlian FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Wuxi Wugo vs Dingnan Ganlian FC?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Wuxi Wugo 1.92 · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wuxi Wugo vs Dingnan Ganlian FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.