Football · China Division 1 · 11/10, 09:30

Prediction: Shaanxi Union vs Foshan Nanshi

Team pages: Shaanxi Union · Foshan Nanshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Shaanxi Union2.52

Foshan Nanshi1.17

1X2

66% 19% 15%

Shaanxi Union Draw Foshan Nanshi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Shaanxi Union 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWLDWW

Foshan Nanshi 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Shaanxi Union 2–1 Foshan Nanshi (3 last)

Foshan Nanshi0-5Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union3-1Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi2-1Shaanxi Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shaanxi Union 1545 · Foshan Nanshi 1428

	Shaanxi Union	Draw	Foshan Nanshi
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shaanxi Union (rating 1545 vs 1428).
H2H favours Shaanxi Union: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shaanxi Union	Foshan Nanshi
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.38▲	Bet365 1.38
X	5.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.08
2	7.50 → 6.00▼	Pinn 8.12 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +21’	1.28	5.00	7.50
06:03 +7’	1.38▲	4.75▼	6.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:22 +3’	1.28	5.33	9.08
04:59 +24’	1.35▲	4.85▼	7.80▼
05:59 +11’	1.33▼	4.99▲	8.02▲
07:41 +29’	1.31▼	5.11▲	8.38▲
09:04 +28’	1.31▼	5.17▲	8.42▲
10:37 +40’	1.32▲	5.08▼	8.12▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shaanxi Union 2–0–1 Foshan Nanshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	0-5 HT 0-2	Shaanxi Union
26/07/25 China Division 1	Shaanxi Union	3-1 HT 2-0	Foshan Nanshi
06/04/25 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	2-1 HT 2-0	Shaanxi Union

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	25	17	6	2	52	21	57
2	Guangxi Hengchen	25	13	6	6	40	27	45
3	Nantong Zhiyun	25	12	9	4	34	20	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	12	8	5	40	29	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	11	6	8	42	27	39
6	Yanbian Longding	25	9	9	7	34	28	36
7	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	25	9	7	9	23	25	34
8	Wuxi Wugo	25	9	6	10	38	31	33
9	Changchun Yatai	25	10	4	11	38	41	30
10	Ningbo Professional FC	25	9	5	11	27	31	29
11	Dalian K'un City	25	7	8	10	30	37	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	25	7	9	9	30	35	27
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	25	4	12	9	35	46	24
14	Nanjing City	25	5	6	14	21	37	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	25	7	4	14	25	50	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	25	3	7	15	25	49	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shaanxi Union	Foshan Nanshi
Dalian K'un City	3-0 W	0-0 D
Suzhou Dongwu	2-2 D	2-3 L
Dingnan Ganlian FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Changchun Yatai	2-1 W	0-6 L
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Shaanxi Union (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shaanxi Union

DLWLWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
27/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
19/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
05/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
29/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-3	1-4	2	5	L
14/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
08/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
01/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-2	2-2	7	5	D

Foshan Nanshi

LDLLLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
19/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
05/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-5	0-6	4	0	L
16/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
08/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
01/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shaanxi Union vs Foshan Nanshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shaanxi Union win (66%). Probabilities: Shaanxi Union 66%, draw 19%, Foshan Nanshi 15%.

How many goals are expected in Shaanxi Union vs Foshan Nanshi?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Shaanxi Union 2.52 · Foshan Nanshi 1.17), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Shaanxi Union vs Foshan Nanshi?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.